Domestic leaders still expect growth, but with less optimism than last year

Participants of the Lider conference Day of Big Plans in 2027 enter with optimism, but somewhat more cautiously than a year ago. The majority still expect growth in their own companies, the sectors in which they operate, and the Croatian economy, but compared to last year’s survey, there are fewer who anticipate stronger growth, and more who expect business to remain at approximately the same level.

Of the 125 participants who responded to the question about their company’s results this year, 45 expect to achieve growth of at least five percent by 2027, and another 37 expect growth of up to five percent. Twenty-nine expect the same results, ten expect a decline of up to five percent, and four expect a decline greater than five percent.

Last year, 169 participants answered the same question. At that time, as many as 79 respondents expected their results in 2026 to increase by at least five percent, 39 anticipated growth of up to five percent, and 25 expected the same results. Sixteen expected a decline of up to five percent, and ten respondents expected a decline greater than five percent.

The difference is particularly visible among those who expect stronger growth. While last year, 79 participants chose that response, this year there are 45. On the other hand, the number of those who expect moderate growth is almost the same, with 39 last year and 37 this year. The number of respondents who expect a decline is also lower than last year, although it should be noted that this year’s survey had fewer participants.

A similar picture is seen in expectations for the sector in which companies operate. This year, of 123 respondents, 44 expect sector growth of up to five percent, 32 expect growth greater than five percent, and 39 expect stagnation. Six respondents expect a decline of up to five percent, and two expect a decline greater than five percent.

A year earlier, 168 participants answered that question. Sixty of them expected sector growth of up to five percent, 50 expected growth greater than five percent, and 44 expected stagnation. Eight respondents expected a decline of up to five percent, and six expected a larger decline.

A more cautious tone is also evident in the assessment of the Croatian economy. This year, 78 out of 124 respondents believe that Croatian GDP will grow in 2027, 42 expect stagnation, and only four expect a decline.

Last year, 111 out of 167 participants expected GDP growth in 2026, 52 expected stagnation, and also four expected a decline.

Expectations have also changed regarding what will contribute most to economic growth. Personal consumption remains the most frequently identified growth generator, chosen by 47 out of 123 respondents this year. Government spending was mentioned by 42 participants, investments by 30, and exports by only four.

Last year, personal consumption was chosen as the main growth generator by 73 out of 164 respondents. Government spending was highlighted by 47, investments by 35, and exports by nine. In both surveys, exports remained by far the least represented response.

The biggest change between the two surveys is perhaps best seen in the responses to the question about the main business challenges. Last year, among 83 responses, issues related to the workforce were prominently repeated. Participants cited employee availability and costs, wage growth, a lack of qualified labor, and difficulties in retaining people. Inflation, geopolitical instability, wars, and regulatory and administrative burdens also frequently appeared.

This year, among 67 responses, labor and geopolitics remain among the important concerns, but energy and energy sources appear much more frequently. Participants cite energy prices, rising oil and derivative prices, energy uncertainty, and the pressure of input costs on business. Inflation, wage growth, a lack of qualified labor, financing, and liquidity are also recurring issues.

Among the challenges for 2027, productivity, maintaining profitability amid high labor costs, slower consumption growth, and the implementation of artificial intelligence emerge. Some participants also warn of bureaucracy, the absence of major infrastructure projects, a lack of state and European support, and the unpredictability of external factors.