Oil Again Above 100 Dollars, Croatia Among the Most Exposed in the EU

Brent is again above 100 dollars per barrel, and the new spike in oil prices comes at a time when Croatia already has one of the largest energy trade deficits in the European Union, meaning that the economy is sensitive to any prolonged increase in the costs of imported energy. More expensive oil directly increases fuel prices and the costs of road, air, and maritime transport, and indirectly the costs of goods distribution and business operations.

Croatia’s energy trade deficit in 2025 was 3.4 percent of GDP, according to Eurostat data analyzed by Euronews. Only Malta, with 5.4 percent of GDP, and Bulgaria, with 3.5 percent, had larger deficits. Following Croatia are Hungary with 2.9 percent, Belgium with 2.6 percent, Luxembourg with 2.5 percent, and Cyprus with 2.4 percent.

A comparison with the largest European economies shows how this burden varies from country to country. Italy’s energy trade deficit was 1.9 percent of GDP, Spain and Poland 1.7 percent, and Germany and France 1.5 percent.

Croatia is not among the largest oil importers. In 2024, it imported 5.7 million tons of oil and oil products. In absolute terms, the Netherlands led with 138.3 million tons, Germany with 117.8 million, Spain with 85.8 million, France with 82.4 million, and Italy with 73.3 million tons.

Europe Almost Completely Depends on Imports

The price of Brent exceeded 100 dollars per barrel again on Wednesday after new attacks on ships near the Hormuz Strait, and it remained above that level on Thursday morning. Brent has been above 70 dollars since mid-February, for almost seven months, and has increased by 65.7 percent since the end of 2025. At that time, the price was 60.85 dollars per barrel.

More expensive crude oil increases the costs of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, but its effect quickly spreads further. Higher transportation costs raise supply chain expenses, which can ultimately reflect on the prices of goods and services. In the euro area, inflation reached 3.3 percent in August, the highest since September 2023, while energy prices rose by 14.3 percent year-on-year.

The European Union has little room to rely on its own production. In 2024, it imported 471.3 million tons of crude oil, while domestic production amounted to only 15.5 million tons. The EU’s dependence on imports has thus reached 96.6 percent.

The largest suppliers were the USA, Kazakhstan, and Norway, each with a share between 12 and 15 percent of total imports. They were followed by Libya with over nine percent, Saudi Arabia with 6.8 percent, and Nigeria and Iraq with 5.8 percent each. About seven percent of crude oil imports to the EU in 2025 came from Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

Although Europe’s direct dependence on oil from the Persian Gulf is not the largest, disruptions in the Hormuz Strait affect the entire global market. Oil is traded globally, so supply issues raise prices for crude coming to Europe from other sources.

The Largest Portion of Oil Ends Up in Transport

The largest European importers are not necessarily the largest actual consumers. The Netherlands imported 138.3 million tons of oil and oil products in 2024, but even 101.1 million tons were re-exported. Belgium also re-exported more than half of the imported quantity.

Germany is a different case. A large part of its imports is related to a strong industry, transportation network, and refining sector. In 2024, Germany accounted for 20.1 percent of final oil and oil product consumption in the EU. France accounted for 15.3 percent, while Italy and Spain each accounted for 11.1 percent. Together, these four countries made up almost 58 percent of total EU consumption.

Almost two-thirds of oil consumption in the EU goes to transport. Road transport accounted for 47.7 percent of consumption in 2024, air transport 9.2 percent, and maritime transport 8.4 percent. Therefore, the rise in barrel prices quickly translates into higher transportation and business costs.

This is particularly important for tourism. More expensive jet fuel increases the costs for airlines connecting tourist markets such as Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, and Malta, while more expensive diesel raises the supply costs for hotels, restaurants, and shops. If the price of oil remains above 100 dollars for an extended period, some of these costs could be passed on to consumers through higher airfare and accommodation prices.