Trading on Polymarket Falls by 35 Percent After World Cup

Polymarket’s monthly trading volume fell to $8.41 billion in August, a decline of about 35 percent from $12.89 billion in July, as the surge following the World Cup that had earlier this summer propelled predictive markets subsided.

Competitor Kalshi barely flinched, finishing the month at $38.67 billion, highlighting how unevenly the slowdown has impacted the two largest platforms in the space.

Polymarket’s volume is decreasing while Kalshi remains stable

According to data collected by The Block, the total volume of Polymarket, its core platform plus a separate Polymarket product for the U.S., was $13.95 billion in June, slightly falling to $12.89 billion in July, and then dropping to $8.41 billion in August.

Polymarket’s core platform suffered the largest decline, sliding from $7.89 billion in July to $4.59 billion in August, while Polymarket US held up better, decreasing from $5 billion to $3.82 billion.

Kalshi’s figures moved in almost the opposite direction. June ended with $33 billion, rose to $40.1 billion in July, and fell only to $38.67 billion in August, a decline of about four percent. The gap between the two platforms has widened, with Kalshi now processing nearly five times the monthly volume of Polymarket, based on the same figures.

DeFiLlama tracking shows that the decline continued into September, with weekly volume across the industry amounting to around $4 billion, significantly below the pace that the platforms saw during the tournament.

Trading slowdown that did not scare off investors

The World Cup boosted the volume of predictive markets from around $65 million at the beginning of the month to a peak of $5.6 billion by July 22, with soccer attracting a wave of users who were using this game for the first time across multiple platforms.

That growth is the peak from which the industry has been descending. However, the drop in investments has not diminished investor interest, as Donald Trump Jr.’s venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, leads a $1 billion funding round that values Polymarket at $21 billion, a jump of 40 percent from the valuation of about $15 billion it had earlier this year.

Data from Predictefy shows that Polymarket’s 30-day volume was $3.8 billion compared to Kalshi’s $11.28 billion, although Polymarket still has over three million users on its platform.

Legal pressure has not disappeared either. Baltimore sued both Kalshi and Polymarket last month, claiming that the companies are conducting unlicensed sports betting operations, which is one of several lawsuits that the two platforms are facing.

Kalshi is also fighting against a lawsuit from New York Attorney General Letitia James, which has prompted the CFTC to call for extraordinary powers to continue operating in the state, all while trading volume settles into a calmer rhythm.