Home / Business and Politics / Gas will be eight percent more expensive from October, bills will increase by 59 euros annually

Gas will be eight percent more expensive from October, bills will increase by 59 euros annually

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Gas will definitely become more expensive from October 1, and the final price for consumers will depend on whether the government extends the subsidies for households that are in effect until September 30. By then, the Croatian Energy Regulatory Agency (HERA) should determine new tariff items, no later than September 21, or ten days before the start of the new regulatory year.

– If the government subsidies remain in place, the price of gas will increase by 4 euros per megawatt-hour, and in the case of the removal of subsidies, the increase would range from 3 to 8 euros per megawatt-hour. Thus, the increase in the price of gas with subsidies would be around 8 percent, while without government subsidies, the increase could exceed 13 to 20 percent in some areas, and the calculation is based on the movement of gas prices from early May to early July – explains the president of the Croatian Gas Professional Association (HSUP), Dalibor Pudić.

According to this calculation, for the average annual household consumption of 10,000 kilowatt-hours, the cost with existing subsidies would amount to 59 euros annually, and without subsidies around 77 euros.

If the government removes the subsidies, it is estimated that the increase in the price of gas for consumers in the Zagreb area from October should be around 13 percent, while in the case of retaining subsidies, gas would become more expensive by about 8 percent. The Zagreb City Gas Company has already set its new market price for autumn practically at the same level as that of Međimurje-gas at 0.0488 euros per kilowatt-hour, with a negligible difference of 0.0001 €/kWh, so the City Gas Company and Međimurje-gas in Zagreb will most likely again have almost the same gas price. However, the City Gas Company has so far announced the price of 0.0488 €/kWh only for the period from October 1 to December 31, 2026, so its price from January 2027 is still unknown.

The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Tomislav Ćorić on Tuesday, commenting on the inflation rate for August, stated that the measures for subsidizing electricity and gas prices will continue, and details of new measures will be known in the coming weeks. Given that Croatia imports as much as 70 percent of gas, the price of this energy source strongly depends on gas prices on European exchanges, where gas has increased by more than 100 percent in the last month, which will certainly be reflected in the price for end consumers. The Croatian Gas Professional Association assures that there will be enough gas – the underground storage in Okolima should be filled to 85 percent by October, and domestic production and the LNG terminal will also contribute to supply.

Let us remind you that HERA calculates the final price of gas per kilowatt-hour for households using a mathematical formula that adds three key components: procurement cost, distribution cost, and supply cost, to which value-added tax (VAT) is finally added. The procurement cost is calculated from the average daily futures prices of TTF (the European gas market) for winter and summer gas contracts, or the midpoint of the offered buying and selling prices published by the analytical company ICIS Heren from May 1 to June 30.

For the current period, HERA has determined the procurement cost at 0.0355 €/kWh. When the supply cost of Međimurje-gas of 0.0095 €/kWh is added for Zagreb, the total is 0.0450 €/kWh for procurement and supply. According to preliminary calculations based on available futures prices, the new HERA procurement component could be approximately 0.0394 €/kWh, compared to the current 0.0355 €/kWh. Thus, the procurement price would increase by 0.0039 €/kWh.

The increase in the price of gas ahead of the new heating season is primarily due to the crisis in the Hormuz Strait, namely the drastic reduction in gas exports from Qatar to Europe by as much as 96 percent, then the strong rise in gas exchange prices, and historically low gas stocks in European storage facilities. Therefore, it is estimated that in the case of a cold winter, gas prices could continue to rise.

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