The Conflict Between the US and Canada is Much More Than a Mutual Trade War

The breakdown of negotiations on the trade agreement between the US and Canada at the very end can simply be called a trade war. Especially after US President Donald Trump responded to Canada’s withdrawal from negotiations with new tariff rates of 50 percent on imports from Canada, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney retaliated with the announcement of a ‘dollar for dollar’ measure, that is, raising tariffs on selected American products to offset the losses incurred due to Trump’s tariffs.

However, the current trade conflict between the US and Canada is much more than a bilateral trade war. To understand its geopolitical depth, it is important to include several other significant variables in the equation.

The most important is certainly: the negotiation process between the US and China regarding a major bilateral trade agreement that is expected to culminate in a summit meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in Washington at the end of September. The trade negotiations between Canada and China are also extremely important, as are the general and presidential elections in Brazil in October and the US midterm elections for Congress in early November.

The Electoral Clash of Superpowers in Brazil

In this broader context, the US-Canada trade war is an important episode in the US-China battle for dominance in the Western Hemisphere, that is, across both American continents. The process of pushing back the growing Chinese influence from the Western Hemisphere, as a priority of Trump’s policy, seemed almost complete after Chinese control over the Panama Canal was halted early in his term, and then the neo-communist dictator in Venezuela Nicolás Maduro was overthrown by a US military operation, and that country has (geo)politically turned towards the US. Communist Cuba thus found itself on the brink of economic collapse, ready for regime redefinition and geopolitical turnaround; in the elections in Chile, Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia, right-wing, pro-American candidates defeated the previously ruling left, which had been very open not only to cooperation with China but also with the entire Eastern geopolitical complex.

Brazil remains Brazil – as the largest Chinese stronghold in Latin America, with socialist President Lula da Silva, who will attempt to win a fifth term in the electoral race against conservative challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president, pro-Trump Jair Bolsonaro. This will also be a crucial US-China electoral match for influence in the Western Hemisphere. A month later, in the US midterm elections for a portion of Congress representatives and state governors, another important electoral match will take place. In it, the Democratic Party, with a significantly strengthened left, socialist wing, which Republicans often refer to as communist, will attempt to achieve a majority in Congress and thus significantly limit President Trump’s political decisions in the second half of his term.

Canadian Prime Minister Carney has emerged as an important player in both matches. Namely, he opened trade negotiations with China before President Trump did, and they have already resulted in a significant increase in bilateral cooperation. Part of the motivation, surely, must be attributed to Carney’s neoliberal political orientation, which opposes the establishment of a new bipolar order with the United States and China as leading powers, as desired by the American president. But one must not overlook Trump’s dismissive and often hostile attitude towards Western allies, including Canada, as a motivation.

Carney Strengthens Xi’s Position

Carney entered parallel trade negotiations with China to warn that a bipolar order that implies American exclusivity in decision-making cannot function, and he reportedly exited trade negotiations with the US precisely due to American demands to control Canadian trade partnerships with third countries, including that with China. A reciprocal tariff response to Trump allows the Canadian Prime Minister to significantly influence elections: both in the US in November and in Brazil in October. And this is to the advantage of Trump’s opponents.

But it also strengthens Xi’s position in the Western Hemisphere ahead of the summit meeting with Trump. Geopolitical logic would dictate that both Trump and Carney take a step back in the coming days and reach an agreement, so that in key processes of global geopolitical resetting, the West does not conflict with itself to the benefit of the East. In this process, it would be necessary for Trump to realize that being a leader does not mean being the master of the Western world, and for Carney to understand that it is possible that by simply replacing American strategic partnership with China, Canada could become a western Chinese province in fifty years. But history teaches us that politicians have often not been reasonable.