More than a Year of Trade War: Who Really Pays the Tariffs?

More than a year after the trade war significantly shook global economic events, economists at Coface provide a detailed overview of the real winners and losers of the customs offensive that began in 2025. Although the political narrative suggested that the cost would be borne by foreign exporters through price reductions, empirical data indicates the opposite trend: the greatest burden of adjustment has fallen directly on the shoulders of American companies.

Internal Pressure on American Industry

Data on the prices of imported goods show that the margins of foreign exporters have remained almost intact, while the import price index in 2025 rose by 0.7 percent, which is in line with the long-term average and does not indicate a mass reduction in prices by foreign companies. On the other hand, American companies that rely on imported inputs faced drastic cost increases. By the end of 2025, input inflation in the metallurgical industry reached 20 percent, while the household appliance and automotive sectors recorded increases of nine percent and eight percent, respectively. This pressure has led to stagnation in gross margins and a worrying rise in insolvencies; the number of bankruptcies in the U.S. has remained at a level 15 percent above the 2019 average for three consecutive quarters, marking the first such negative streak since the pandemic period.

Global Restructuring and the Rise of ‘Link Countries’

The trade war did not reduce the American trade deficit as planned, but it dramatically accelerated the reconfiguration of global supply chains. ‘Link countries’ have emerged as intermediary platforms for goods that would otherwise be directly exported from China to the U.S.

The most extreme example of this phenomenon is Vietnam, whose exports to the U.S. in 2025 increased by an incredible 42 percent in value, absorbing almost half of the decline in Chinese imports. Similar patterns, albeit to a lesser extent, have been observed in Thailand. The logistics sector has also suffered shocks; due to unforeseen waves of demand and reduced capacities on transpacific routes, freight rates surged by 70 percent in just four weeks in May 2025, while the Shanghai – Los Angeles route recorded a peak growth of 120 percent.

Legal Chaos and the Future of Trade Barriers

An additional dimension of uncertainty was introduced by the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on February 20, 2026, which overturned tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This decision paves the way for a potential refund of up to $166 billion to American companies, but the administration has already responded by activating new legal tools, such as Section 122 of the Trade Act, to impose general tariffs of 10 to 15 percent.

Such legal instability creates an environment in which economic actors cannot confidently plan long-term strategies. The conclusion of experts is clear: the trade war is entering a ‘marathon’ phase in which companies’ ability to absorb costs will be exhausted, potentially leading to a stronger transfer of the inflationary burden onto end consumers.