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ECB Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged Despite Rising Inflation Risks

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The Governing Council decided today that the three key interest rates of the ECB will remain unchanged. The key interest rates of the ECB will remain unchanged: the deposit facility rate is two percent, the rate for main refinancing operations is 2.15 percent, and the rate for the marginal lending facility is 2.40 percent. New information largely confirms the Governing Council’s previous assessment of inflation prospects. However, positive risks for inflation and negative risks for economic growth have strengthened. The Governing Council is committed to establishing a monetary policy that will achieve the stabilization of inflation at the target level of two percent in the medium term.

The war in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in energy prices, which has raised inflation and worsened economic sentiment. The consequences of the war for medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the strength and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the extent of indirect effects and second-round effects. The longer the war and high energy prices last, the stronger the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy.

The Governing Council remains well-positioned to navigate the current uncertainty. At the beginning of this period of significant energy price increases, inflation in the euro area was at levels around the target of two percent, and the economy has proven resilient in recent quarters. Longer-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, although shorter-term inflation expectations have shifted significantly higher.

The Governing Council will closely monitor the situation and will apply a data-driven approach at each meeting when determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy. Indeed, its decisions on interest rates will depend on its assessment of inflation prospects and related risks, based on new economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

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