Hungary Votes: Orban Facing Possible Loss of Power After 16 Years

Hungarians are voting on Sunday in a pivotal parliamentary election closely monitored by the European Union, United States, and Russia, among others, with polls indicating that Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his nationalist party Fidesz may lose power after 16 years, reports Reuters.

Orban could lose the election to the center-right, pro-European party Tisza, led by former Orban ally Peter Magyar.

We present key information about Hungary’s political system and an overview of possible election outcomes.

Voting Method

Hungarian voters will elect 199 representatives to parliament – 106 from 106 electoral districts, and the remaining 93 from national party lists and minority lists.

Orban’s government has granted ethnic Hungarians living abroad the right to citizenship, allowing them to vote for party lists by mail.

According to the National Election Office, nearly 500,000 such citizens are registered for the 2026 elections. The vast majority of them traditionally support Orban’s Fidesz.

Those registered in Hungary must vote in person, either at polling stations in Hungary or, if abroad, at one of Hungary’s official representations.

To enter parliament, a party must receive at least 5 percent of the votes.

Polling stations open on Sunday at 6 AM and close at 7 PM. Results are expected to be known late Sunday evening.

What Happens After the Elections?

President Tamas Sulyok is expected to convene the new parliament within 30 days of the election, likely in May. In 2022, elections were held on April 3, and the new parliament convened on May 2.

The prime minister is elected by a simple majority vote in parliament. The President of Hungary proposes a candidate for prime minister, usually the candidate of the winning party, and parliament then votes on that proposal.

If parliament does not elect the proposed individual, the president must propose a new candidate within 15 days.

If parliament again fails to elect a prime minister, the president may dissolve parliament and call for new elections.

What Are the Possible Outcomes of the Elections?

The Budapest-based think tank Political Capital outlined possible scenarios on Friday:

Two-thirds majority for Fidesz: This would allow Fidesz to further reshape institutions without restrictions, and institutional autonomy in Hungary would be further weakened.

Convincing majority for Fidesz: Such a majority would allow the continuation of current policies, with foreign policy likely remaining largely unchanged.

Narrow majority for Fidesz: This would create a new and uncertain political situation, with a fragile balance of power and increased pressure from the opposition.

Two-thirds majority for Tisza: This would enable deep institutional reforms and give the new government space to restructure key institutions.

Convincing majority for Tisza: This would allow for limited but significant changes, but would not ensure a strong legal mandate for deep institutional reforms. The political dynamics would remain tense.

Narrow majority for Tisza: This would create an unstable and risky governance situation, with a fragile balance of power. Election results could be contested, potentially leading to mass protests.

No clear winner: A deadlock would lead to a fragmented political scene, where no key player can independently form a stable government. The far-right party Mi Hazank (Our Homeland) could become a decisive factor, and coalition formation could be uncertain and prolonged.