Will Europe Run Out of Fuel: EU Considers Rationing Due to War

The European Union is assessing ‘all options’, including fuel rationing and a new release of oil from strategic reserves, as it prepares for a ‘prolonged’ energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East, said the bloc’s energy commissioner.

– This will be a long crisis, energy prices will be higher for a long time – stated Dan Jørgensen to the Financial Times, warning that for some ‘more critical’ products ‘a deterioration in the situation is expected in the coming weeks’.

The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically key shipping route through which about 20 million barrels of oil pass daily, accounting for approximately one-fifth of total global consumption, along with attacks on infrastructure in the Gulf, has caused chaos in energy markets. The crisis began on February 28, 2026, following joint military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, and Iranian retaliation on Gulf energy infrastructure led to an almost complete halt of shipping through the strait.

Iranian attacks on March 18 reportedly damaged between 30 and 40 percent of oil refinery capacity in the Gulf, removing an estimated 11 million barrels per day from the global market. This pushed Brent oil prices to around $119 per barrel, compared to approximately $70 before the conflict. At the peak of the crisis, prices reached as high as $126 per barrel, the highest level in the last four years.

– The rhetoric and language we are using are more serious than they were earlier in the crisis. Our analysis clearly shows that this will be a prolonged situation and that countries must ensure they have what they need – said Jørgensen.

He emphasized that the EU ‘is not yet in a supply security crisis’, but that Brussels is developing plans to address the ‘structural, long-term effects’ of the conflict.

Aviation Fuel and Regulatory Adjustments

Airlines have expressed particular concern about the supply of jet fuel. Jørgensen stated that the EU ‘is not yet at the point where it should change existing rules’, for example, by weakening jet fuel standards to allow for more imports from the US. The EU and the US have different standards; European jet fuel must withstand freezing down to -47 °C, while the US standard is 40 °C.

– However, we are considering all options, and it is clear that as the situation becomes more serious, we need to look more at legislative tools – he added.

Strategic Oil Reserves and IEA Coordination

Jørgensen stated that he ‘will not rule out’ a new release of strategic energy reserves if the situation becomes more serious. The International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of oil on March 11 in an attempt to stabilize the market, but this move has so far proven insufficient. Although this is one of the largest coordinated releases of strategic reserves in history.

Jørgensen did not disclose a ‘precise analysis’ of when a new release might be necessary, but emphasized that ‘we must keep options open, and if this is indeed, as I predict, a prolonged crisis, we will need those tools at a later stage’.

LNG and Russian Deliveries

Europe is particularly vulnerable due to liquefied natural gas (LNG) as about 20 percent of global LNG traffic passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict, predominantly coming from Qatar, the second-largest exporter of LNG in the world. Europe entered 2026 with much lower gas levels in storage than in previous years, only 46 billion cubic meters at the end of February 2026, compared to 60 billion in 2025 and even 77 billion in 2024.

Regarding Russian LNG, Jørgensen reiterated that there will be no changes to EU legislation this year that would prohibit the import of Russian liquefied natural gas. He stated that relying on the US and other partners for additional supplies is considered acceptable as they operate in a ‘free market’.