Coffee Prices Slightly Rise, Gas Remains Highly Volatile Commodity

Coffee prices will maintain a slight upward trend in the coming period, while gas prices will remain volatile and will depend on the further course of negotiations to end the US-Iran conflict. This was assessed by HUP’s chief economist Hrvoje Stojić in his regular weekly analysis Focus of the Week.

According to HUP’s Focus of the Week, the price of coffee has increased by 11.7 percent since the beginning of March, reaching a one-month high of 3.2 US dollars per pound. HUP’s analysis interprets that this price increase reflects a deterioration in short-term supply prospects in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee, where adverse weather conditions have caused a weaker harvest and limited coffee availability in the market.

– According to estimates by Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, Brazilian coffee exports could fall by about 10 percent this year, to approximately 4.4 million bags, compared to about 4.9 million last year. The weaker harvest from 2025 is already reducing available quantities, especially in the first half of the year, while producers further limit supply by delaying sales in anticipation of higher prices. In such circumstances, we expect coffee prices to maintain a slight upward trend in the coming period – it was stated in the Focus of the Week.

TTF: Gas Prices High Despite Short-Term Decline

HUP also touched on gas prices on TTF, the reference hub for gas trading in The Netherlands, in its weekly analysis. The price of European gas on TTF, as noted by HUP, fell by 12.6 percent at the beginning of the week, to 54 euros per megawatt-hour, but is still about 70 percent higher compared to the period before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

The recent decline is a result of market expectations regarding a possible ceasefire, spurred by US President Donald Trump‘s initiative to initiate negotiations. However, without a concrete agreement and subsequent alleviation of supply disruptions, geopolitical risks remain pronounced, HUP noted.

– The Hormuz Strait remains blocked, disrupting about 20 percent of global energy transport routes, while the largest LNG facility in Qatar is partially offline with about 17 percent of capacity damaged. In such circumstances, we expect increased volatility in gas prices in both directions, depending on the further course of negotiations – it was assessed in HUP’s Focus of the Week.