Profit on Target: The Rise of Prediction Markets Trading in Death

If someone had claimed just a few years ago that billions of dollars would be wagered on digital platforms betting on the exact date of a U.S. airstrike on Iran or what fate would befall Maduro or Ali Khamenei, and whether and when a Ukrainian city would fall, they would likely have been labeled a writer of dystopian novels.

Today, this is no longer fiction, but a harsh, highly profitable, and deeply controversial business reality. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have transformed global uncertainty into the most valuable commodity of the ‘attention economy’, creating a hybrid world that erases the boundaries between stock trading, intelligence warfare, and pure gambling.

In March 2026, Polymarket was valued at around nine billion dollars, and forecasts suggest that the entire sector could reach a trading volume of an astonishing one trillion dollars by 2030. The numbers are staggering, with over 13 billion dollars flowing into these platforms monthly, where users no longer buy shares of companies, but ‘event contracts’. They simply bet yes or no. If the answer to the question ‘Will Israel attack Iran by Friday?’ is affirmative, the owner who bet on the ‘Yes’ contract profits, and if negative, they lose everything. This binary logic conceals an ethical abyss where human suffering and geopolitical stability are reduced to mere profit and loss charts.

And some are profiting, indeed. A recent example is a user nicknamed Magamyman who earned over 553 thousand dollars betting on Polymarket on events related to Iran and its supreme leader Ali Khamenei, just before the Israeli attack resulted in his death. This bet sparked a wave of discussions about whether such platforms allow individuals with access to confidential information to profit from military operations and state secrets. According to available data, over half a billion dollars was traded on Polymarket regarding when U.S. forces would attack Iran.

Trump’s Connections

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy reacted sharply on social media platform X, questioning whether ‘this is even legal’, adding that people close to President Donald Trump ‘profit from war and death’. He also announced plans to propose legislation as soon as possible to ban such activities, which has been proposed under the name ‘DEATH BETS Act.’ This Act aimed at curbing exploitative bets on assassinations, tragedies, and harm would close loopholes in existing regulations that theoretically prohibit betting on war and terrorism, but in practice allow the gray area to thrive.

The White House dismissed claims that anyone from Trump’s circle participated in the controversial trades, although the Trump family has certain connections to Polymarket. Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to the platform, while his investment firm 1789 Capital invested millions of dollars in this controversial project. The Trump administration also shut down two federal investigations against Polymarket that had previously been initiated by officials in President Joe Biden’s administration.

Political Blessing and Mainstream Penetration

The rise of these platforms is not just a technological phenomenon, but also a result of tectonic shifts in political power. Polymarket has struggled for years with U.S. regulators (CFTC) over non-compliance with gambling laws, but Donald Trump’s return to the White House brought a complete turnaround. With public support from the president and the involvement of his son, Trump Jr., who holds advisory roles at Polymarket, these markets gained institutional legitimacy.

Proponents argue that prediction markets provide more accurate information than traditional polls because participants ‘invest where their word is’. However, this alleged ‘wisdom of the crowd’ increasingly appears to be a playground for manipulation. While CNN and CNBC broadcast Polymarket odds in real-time as relevant data, critics warn of the danger of creating false perceptions as those with enough capital can artificially inflate the probability of a certain outcome and thus directly influence public or investor sentiment.

Gamification of War and Intelligence Gambling

When the focus shifts to geopolitics, the game becomes deadly. Over 529 million dollars have been wagered on Polymarket on outcomes related to the war in Iran. One user reportedly earned thousands of dollars by predicting the exact date of the attack, while in Israel, soldiers are under investigation for allegedly using confidential military data to place winning bets.

The issue of insider information here ceases to be just a regulatory problem and becomes a matter of national security. If someone can earn millions on the precise timing of a military strike or terrorist attack, a perverse incentive is created not only to monitor but also to encourage such events. Moreover, data on what the public thinks will happen has become a premium commodity. Although platforms claim to protect anonymity, their databases on conflict expectations are extremely valuable to foreign intelligence services and actors in the information war.

From ‘Beer Pong’ to Insider Trading

Perhaps the most alarming aspect of this trend is the aggressive targeting of the younger population. Since contracts on these platforms are regulated as financial derivatives rather than traditional gambling, the threshold for entering the game has been lowered to 18 years old (21 in the U.S.). The marketing strategy is such that Polymarket has sponsored student fraternities at elite universities like Columbia, paying them tens of thousands of dollars to register new users under the guise of funding ‘epic parties’. Branded beer pong sets have appeared on campuses, while paid influencers on TikTok promote bets on weather forecasts or bizarre rumors as ‘quick cash’.

Experts warn that this creates a generation that does not analyze the future with empathy, but through the lens of profit. When a student on campus in Clemson or Columbia bets their pocket money on whether American soldiers will die in Tehran, the moral compass of society is not just lost; it has been sold on the exchange.

A Market that Devours Reality

Prediction markets pretend to become the ‘Bloomberg terminal for the future’, but they carry the risk of turning the entire world into a massive digital casino. As regulators struggle with VPNs that allow circumvention of national laws, the line between informed investment and pathological gambling has nearly vanished.

In a world where the slogan of one of the leading platforms is ‘The world has gone mad, trade it’, the greatest risk is not losing money on the exchange. The real risk is the complete erosion of empathy and truth at the moment when human lives, wars, and democratic processes become mere items in someone’s digital portfolio. If every global event becomes an opportunity for profit, the question is not who will predict the future, but who will, motivated by profit, decide to shape it to their liking.