US-Iran War: It Will Be a Miracle If the Global Economy Withstands a New Shock

Three days after launching the bombing of Iran by all possible means on Saturday, February 28, President Donald Trump stated in his arrogant style that there are almost unlimited quantities of weapons available for continuing the assault on Iran. He claimed that wars could be fought indefinitely by merely depleting those supplies. On the fourth day, Tuesday, news broke that the same Trump had urgently summoned the most important American arms manufacturers for Friday. The topic of the meeting: accelerating arms production as the Pentagon seeks to replenish its stocks.

It is conceivable that on Friday, some leaders of the military-industrial complex might feel encouraged to ask whether there is enough money in the U.S. treasury for increased orders. It is equally conceivable to imagine the response that there will be no problems with payment. A few billion have been gathered from tariffs, Congress will once again approve breaching the limits of permissible borrowing, and there is also the lifesaving Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranian authorities, much to Trump’s delight, have decided to close it. Thus, tankers no longer export oil from Gulf countries. The consequence is an explosion in the rise of oil and gas prices in global markets. Coincidentally, the U.S. can offer its energy resources. After American consumers have paid a large portion of the imposed tariffs, consumers around the world will now, at the cost of inflation, pay for the continuation of the conquests that Trump and those behind him desired during his term.

Is It Again the New Normal?

In humanity’s attempt to deny danger, peace is sought in the hope that the global economy is strong enough to somehow endure without long-term catastrophic damage and collapse, just as it has until now. Over the past fifteen years, businesses have been subjected to shocks from the financial collapse of 2009, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the onset of Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2022, and the beginning of Trump’s trade war in 2025. Despite all these shocks, a global recession or a major crisis like that of 1929-1933 has not occurred. One hopes that this frightening expansion of war across the Middle East, if it does not end in four to five weeks, will remain a regional conflict. And that financial markets and real businesses will adapt to yet another ‘new normal.’

However, responsible individuals, groups, and communities must also accept the possibility that the existing system has a limit to its resilience. Especially when recalling that all major financial collapses in the last hundred years began in the U.S. And U.S. state finances are once again ripe to be the detonator.

In the unwanted development of global war and economic processes, the question of resilience becomes crucial. The concept of resilience has increasingly been mentioned in recent years as a lifesaving solution. The economic definition states that it refers to ‘the resilience of a system (e.g., the economy) to shocks such as recessions or crises.’ A more vivid and stronger definition of resilience pertains to materials, i.e., how materials and structures withstand forces while avoiding breaking or excessive deformation.

What is happening to every business, and to the state as a whole, due to increasingly frequent shocks, are forces that increasingly threaten breaking or excessive deformation. Breaking would be, for example, financial collapse, severe recession, bankruptcies, unemployment, sudden impoverishment of the majority of the population, social unrest, and open dictatorships where they have not yet existed.

Components of Resilience

Small states and economies cannot change global events. But they can prepare to be as resilient as possible.

The European Commission has a ‘resilience dashboard for member states’ (The Economic Resilience Index – ERI). The ERI consists of 27 indicators divided into six dimensions: economic independence, education and skills, financial resilience, governance, production capacities, and social cohesion.

According to the resilience index (from several years ago), the best are, quite predictably, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands. Surprisingly, Croatia was in 17th place. Following are Spain, Italy, Slovakia, Portugal, Poland, Bulgaria, Greece, and Romania.

It would be necessary to utilize this methodology for a numerically measurable plan to strengthen resilience in Croatia. It is significant that social cohesion is emphasized as an important factor of resilience in some countries. Again, according to a non-economic definition, cohesion is ‘a term that describes the attractive forces between molecules of the same substance holding them together.’ How strong the attractive forces are between ideologically deliberately opposing parts of our community is not hard to conclude. Our social cohesion is increasingly weakening. And thus, so is the resilience to the shocks that threaten.