Central and Eastern Europe Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Grayling, a global public relations and public affairs agency, has published Grayling CEE Outlook 2026 – an analysis of the political, regulatory, and economic factors that will shape Central and Eastern Europe in the upcoming period.

The analysis was prepared by Grayling public affairs experts from ten countries: Croatia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Serbia, and Ukraine. The report shows how governments and the business sector are responding to a shared moment of geopolitical uncertainty and economic adjustment. The conclusion of the report is that what connects these markets in 2026 is not uniformity, but simultaneity: a shared moment of adjustment across the region as governments, regulators, and the business sector respond to changing economic and geopolitical pressures.

– This year represents a turning point across Central and Eastern Europe. Almost every country in the region is simultaneously managing political pressures, fiscal constraints, and economic transitions – all in the context of ongoing geopolitical instability – stated Nataša Trslić Štambak, regional director of Grayling for the CEE region.

– For businesses, success will depend on understanding both the broader regional picture and local political realities. Our CEE Outlook 2026 provides relevant insights and expertise in public advocacy necessary for successfully managing challenging situations – she added.

The war in Ukraine remains a central factor shaping the European security architecture, while the war in the Gulf further deepens global geopolitical tensions. At the same time, the European Union faces internal pressures and renewed discussions on enlargement, sanctions, fiscal governance, and the balance between integration and national sovereignty.

The parliamentary elections in Hungary in April stand out as a potential turning point not only for domestic politics but also for the broader dynamics within the European Union. Slovenia and Slovakia are also entering decisive political phases. Ljubljana is heading towards uncertain elections marked by discussions on pension system and labor market reforms, while Bratislava is going through a polarized pre-election period with continued fiscal consolidation.

Meanwhile, Poland and Croatia are striving to align institutional and strategic priorities: Warsaw is dealing with tensions between the government and the president while maintaining defense spending at a level close to 5 percent of GDP, while Zagreb, in the context of slowing economic growth and domestic political polarization, continues its ambitions to join the OECD.

Romania faces the fragility of the ruling coalition and new budgetary pressures following the introduction of extensive tax measures, while Bulgaria is grappling with instability that followed the introduction of the euro, alongside persistent inflationary challenges. Serbia encounters a specific set of pressures, combining domestic political uncertainty with preparations for EXPO 2027, which significantly affect the investment climate. The outlook for Ukraine remains fundamentally determined by the war, with developments on the battlefield continuing to define its political, economic, and reform path.

Economic results across the region reflect this diverse but simultaneous adjustment. While the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and Poland maintain relatively stable growth, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania face stagflationary pressures. Serbia and Croatia continue to grow, but with elevated inflation. The outlook for Ukraine remains fragile due to the ongoing war.

– In a narrower regional context, we see Slovenia, Croatia, and Serbia in challenging political and economic cycles – from the upcoming elections in Slovenia, through slowing growth and ambitions to join the OECD in Croatia, to political uncertainty in Serbia. Such dynamics directly impact the business environment and strategic planning of companies. That is why the CEE Outlook 2026 provides a structured and reliable framework that helps companies make informed decisions and long-term positioning in the market,” emphasized Robert Škunca, director of Grayling for Southeast Europe.

With 10 offices across Central and Eastern Europe, Grayling has the most comprehensive network of any agency in the region. The expertise and knowledge of Grayling’s public affairs teams represent one of the agency’s key strengths, providing services in political advocacy, strategic campaign support, stakeholder management, and influencing public policies in sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and technology. With the support of teams in Brussels, London, and the United States, Grayling enables clients to align national engagement with policy development at the EU level and transatlantic relations – ensuring that, in a year marked by simultaneity rather than uniformity, their voice is heard where it matters most.