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Four Years Ago, Not Only War Began, But Also the Resetting of the Global Order

Višnja Starešina
Višnja Starešina / Image by: foto

Four years ago, through a series of short video selfies recorded on a mobile phone in darkened Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelensky won the media war against Vladimir Putin. Do you remember those short selfie messages from the Ukrainian president in camouflage? ‘We are here. Our government is here. The president is here. Our army is in position.’ Indeed, in those first days and nights of the invasion, Ukraine managed to repel Putin’s attempted coup and the establishment of a Russian puppet government that would return Ukraine to the ‘Russian World’, and in the following months, the Ukrainian army succeeded in halting the Russian invasion along lines that have, more or less, remained the lines of separation to this day. However, this exhausting Russo-Ukrainian war, with no significant shifts on the battlefield and many casualties, which can only be concluded through a compromise freezing of the conflict without a winner, has changed Europe and become a crucial agent in resetting the global order.

What Europe Has Learned

To begin with, it brought Europe (EU) down from the rosy bubble to reality, making it aware that it is completely neglected in defense and that energy monopolies (gas, oil) are also weapons. Today, arguments against strengthening European defense can still be heard, claiming that Russian President Putin is not interested in conquering Europe through war and joining it to the ‘Russian World’. True. But four years ago, had he truly wanted to, he could have perhaps reached Paris more easily with a tank column than Kyiv. But it was not necessary: Europe was vulnerable, it was enough to turn off the gas.

Today, however, it is much different: Europe has diversified its energy supply, started investing in its defense, and has learned something about the paradigm of the ‘Russian World’ (although it still has a problem recognizing its local franchise – the ‘Serbian World’), which eludes Western rational understanding of politics. Gradually, it is learning that modern wars are not only fought with divisions but also with ‘summer houses’ (and not just Russian ones) around strategic military facilities in Western countries… It has also learned something about the traps of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. A series of Middle Eastern conflicts that began on October 7, 2023, with Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel can also be viewed as an attempt by Russia’s ally Iran to strengthen its presence and Eastern geopolitical dominance in the Middle East (Iran, Russia, China) with the help of its militias.

The attempt failed. Israel has increased its strength, and the USA its influence and presence in the Middle East. The current developments in Iran may provoke a serious geopolitical shift towards the Western alignment of the entire Middle East, but this is also a process that carries the risk of war escalation or post-war chaos. The regime change in Iran and its geopolitical orientations is certainly the most important, but also the most sensitive part of the geopolitical resetting of the Middle East. Europe has lost roles it played in history (UK, France) in this process. If the project succeeds, it may seek them in the next, economic phase.

Conditions for a New Bipolar System

Both the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Middle Eastern conflicts have once again demonstrated the complete impotence and irrelevance of existing institutions of the international order (UN). However, in this process of disintegration, the USA, with its new president Donald Trump, very actively and sometimes (overly) aggressively for European taste took on the role of managing the change of the global order. The global influence of China has significantly decreased – from Latin America and the Middle East to Europe – to which many had already begun to bow as the new world ruler. India is taking on an increasingly important role on the global stage as a counterpoint to China and an increasingly convincing Western ally. Conditions are gradually being created for the USA and China to balance their relations and zones of influence in some new bipolar system.

And the entire process was opened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine four years ago. A Russo-Ukrainian peace, or some compromise freezing of the conflict, will likely only follow at the end of that process. Ukraine certainly does not desire such peace with a de facto loss of territory, no matter how it is ultimately legally defined. But even less does Putin desire such an ending. By invading Ukraine four years ago, he exploited the weakness of the global order and launched a conquering war to realize the imperial dream of the ‘Russian World’. Today, entrenched in Ukraine, he waits to become a byproduct of global changes being carried out by other actors.

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