Prices of European wheat are gradually rising and currently hover around 195 euros per ton, while the price of sugar has also surpassed the level of 14 cents per pound after a decline at the beginning of the year. Both movements are driven by reduced supply — for wheat due to poorer yields in Europe, and for sugar due to adverse weather conditions in India and exchange rate movements in Brazil, states the latest HUP Weekly Focus.
The European association COCERAL has estimated that this year’s wheat production in the EU (excluding durum wheat) will amount to approximately 143.9 million tons, which is four million tons less than the previous year. The area under wheat has slightly increased, but yields are still expected to be lower. The European Commission has already lowered its soft wheat export estimate from 31 to 29.5 million tons, and HUP expects price movements in the range of 190 to 200 euros per ton in the upcoming period.
In the case of sugar, which has been in a downward trend since the beginning of the year, the turnaround occurred due to a combination of factors. The appreciation of the Brazilian real is discouraging exports there, while excessive rains in India have reduced sugarcane yields. It is estimated that Indian production in the 2025/2026 season will be between 28.5 and 29 million tons, which is about 1.5 million tons below earlier expectations. Additional uncertainty is introduced by the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn part of the tariffs, which could open up space for greater Brazilian exports to the U.S. market. However, HUP expects price stabilization at the current level.
