Key Business Trends and Unknowns for 2026

The global economy in 2026 enters a phase where there is no longer room for neutral positions. Geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, technological leaps, and investor pressure for capital returns increasingly separate winners from losers. An analysis of key sectors conducted by the Financial Times shows where power, profit, and risk will concentrate in the coming year.

Defense Industry

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the defense industry has experienced a strong surge. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the 100 largest defense companies in the world achieved record revenues of $679 billion in 2024, and the trend continued throughout 2025.

The key question for 2026 is whether this growth will continue at the same pace if the conflict in Ukraine calms down. Investors have already shown nervousness whenever signs of a possible peace agreement emerge, especially in Europe. However, the industry is counting on a long-term paradigm shift: NATO members have committed to increasing defense spending, while demand is further stimulated by new areas such as drones, military satellite infrastructure, and space security.

German Rheinmetall has emerged as a symbol of European armament, with ambitions to become a global player comparable to the largest American defense giants.

Deregulation of the Banking Sector in the U.S.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has accelerated the shift towards lighter regulation of the banking sector in the U.S. Announced changes to capital requirements are expected to further solidify the dominance of large Wall Street banks and increase their ability to finance large projects, particularly in the fields of artificial intelligence and data centers.

For Europe, this poses an uncomfortable challenge. Stricter rules offer greater resilience to shocks but simultaneously reduce competitiveness against American rivals. The Bank of England has already begun to ease regulations, while the European Central Bank is announcing simplifications at a slower pace.

At the center of the discussion is UBS, whose balance sheet after acquiring Credit Suisse is larger than Switzerland’s GDP. The outcome of the regulatory debate during 2026 could be an important signal for the entire European banking sector.

Time for Results in AI

After years in which investments in artificial intelligence have grown faster than revenues, 2026 is expected to be the year of truth. Investors are increasingly seeking evidence that the hundreds of billions of dollars invested in data centers and infrastructure can generate sustainable revenues.

This will lead to a clearer market separation: companies with concrete business models and growing revenues will maintain high valuations, while those relying solely on promises will lose access to capital. OpenAI and its monetization plans are particularly being watched, as well as Apple, which faces the potential departure of Tim Cook and the question of how to position itself in the era of user-focused AI.

In the background, a new wave of acquisitions is increasingly mentioned, especially if markets experience a correction that would open up opportunities for large tech players to buy AI startups.

The End of the Golden Era of Weight Loss Drugs?

Weight regulation drugs have thoroughly changed the pharmaceutical industry and created new market leaders over the past two years. However, 2026 brings a more complex picture. Although demand will continue to grow, competition is intensifying, and the loss of patent protection in certain countries opens the door for generic versions.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly remain key players, but investors are increasingly scrutinizing whether the sector can maintain high margins or will face price pressures, especially in large markets like China and Canada.

AI in Media: Risk or Advantage?

Artificial intelligence is increasingly entering creative industries, from music to film, raising questions that go beyond technology. AI-generated performers are already topping music charts, while discussions about copyright, fair use, and revenue distribution are ongoing.

In the film industry, 2026 could be marked by new negotiations with unions, with protection against uncontrolled use of AI being one of the key topics. Concurrently, a potential acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery could further shake up the streaming market and spur regulatory discussions.

A Year of Clear Winners

The common thread across all sectors is a reduction in tolerance for uncertainty. Investors, regulators, and consumers in 2026 are seeking clear answers: who can deliver growth, who has political and regulatory support, and who is ready to adapt to technological and social changes. In this context, the coming year will not be kind to the average, but it could be exceptionally rewarding for those who position themselves among the clear winners.