The complete ban on imports of Russian gas, which will gradually come into effect no later than autumn 2027, agreed upon yesterday by the EU Council and the European Parliament, will not significantly affect market gas prices in the European market nor gas prices in Croatia. This was stated for Lider by the president of the Croatian Gas Association (HSUP) Dalibor Pudić.
– This ban should not significantly affect market prices, as the quantities of Russian gas that Europe procures are not as large as before the war in Ukraine and the markets have already adapted. Last year, Europe imported 50 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, while before the attack on Ukraine, it imported 200 billion, which accounted for about 40 to 45 percent of exports. Now we have fallen to a quarter of that amount.
In global terms, 50 billion cubic meters is not a decisive quantity that would significantly change market relations, but it is large enough to say that by purchasing that gas, the Russian Federation is being supported in its war efforts. When contracts expire and the ban is fully implemented, gas from Russia will go to other markets at a lower price, while EU members will reorient themselves to gas that is surplus in other markets, as has already been shown after earlier decisions made by the European Commission following the attack on Ukraine. There were minor price corrections, but they quickly normalized – assessed Pudić.
Von der Leyen: We were paying Russia 12 billion monthly
The agreement of European lawmakers provides for a ban on imports of Russian liquefied gas from April 25, 2026, and from June 17, 2026, for gas imported via pipeline. This deadline applies to short-term contracts. For long-term contracts, the deadline is slightly longer, so the ban on importing liquefied gas will come into effect on January 1, 2027, in accordance with the 19th package of sanctions against Russia. Long-term contracts for gas imports via pipeline, Europe has decided, must be suspended no later than the period from September 30 to November 1, 2027, depending on how much gas storage is filled during that period.
– Today is indeed a historic day for our Union. This is the beginning of a new era, an era of complete energy independence for Europe from Russia. At the beginning of the war, we were paying Russia 12 billion euros monthly for fossil fuels, now we are at 1.5 billion, and that is still too much. Our goal is to bring that down to zero – said Ursula von der Leyen in a media statement regarding the announcement of the ban on imports of Russian gas.
Putin uses energy as a weapon of blackmail
Danish Energy Minister Lars Aagaard, whose country holds the presidency of the EU Council, also welcomed this decision, deeming it a great victory for all of Europe. The European Commission’s energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen was more severe.
– Russian President Vladimir Putin uses energy as a weapon against us, blackmailing the member states of the European Union, and he used the profits to finance his terrible war against our friends in Ukraine. Today we say no more and never again – said Jorgensen.
The regulation on the ban on imports of Russian gas, which the EU Council and the European Parliament need to formally implement, will be adopted instead of sanctions, as it can be passed by a qualified majority, while sanctions require consensus. The choice of this political instrument was necessary to circumvent a possible veto from Hungary or Slovakia, which still consume oil from Russian sources, despite the sanctions, to which the Commission could also respond with a regulation.
Hungary and Slovakia will face consequences, Croatia will not
Pudić believes that this ban will not have significant consequences for Croatia, but he pointed out that Hungary and Slovakia may face them.
– Suppliers in Croatia, I believe, adhere to European regulations and do not procure gas from Russia. There is room, and many countries are already buying everything that is outside of Russian gas, but the most important question is for the members of Hungary and Slovakia. The question arises as to what their contracts are like and what consequences their terminations would have for those countries, as it is likely that it is cheaper gas and who would compensate for the consequences of their terminations. If Hungary and Slovakia ignore these decisions, certain sanctions are possible, perhaps even a ban on access to certain European funds. These countries are in big trouble. America has temporarily exempted them from sanctions for oil, but that does not mean much for the EU – said Pudić.
This decision is a consequence of Russian aggression against Ukraine, after which EU leaders agreed at the Versailles summit in March 2022 to gradually eliminate dependence on Russian fossil fuels as soon as possible. The import of fossil fuels from Russia has significantly decreased in recent years, especially However, while oil imports into the EU have significantly decreased, about 13 percent of total European gas imports are still purchased from Russia. The lack of energy from these sources is compensated by Europe with increased production from renewable energy sources.
