CEIZ Index Indicates GDP Growth of 2.5 Percent in Q3

The movement of the CEIZ index suggests that the Croatian economy will grow by 2.5 percent in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, according to the estimate from the Economic Institute, Zagreb (EIZ) published on Monday.

In September 2025, the CEIZ index recorded a decrease in value of 0.99 index points compared to the same month in 2024. At the same time, the value of the index was higher by 0.19 index points compared to the previous month, as stated in the announcement on the EIZ website.

When observed by index components, all four components of the CEIZ index recorded a higher seasonally adjusted value in September 2025 compared to August of the same year – retail trade turnover, industrial production volume index, state budget revenue from value-added tax, and the number of tourist arrivals. All components of the index also achieved an increase in value compared to the same month of the previous year.

– The movement of the index in September suggests a slowdown in economic activity in the third quarter of 2025. Based on the movement of the index values, we can estimate that the annual GDP growth rate in the Croatian economy will amount to 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2025, with a positive quarterly change rate – emphasized EIZ analysts.

The EIZ notes that the monthly estimate of GDP growth based on the value of the CEIZ index is indicative and should primarily be used as information about the current state and direction of the business cycle in the Republic of Croatia.

The Croatian Bureau of Statistics (DZS) will publish the first estimate of GDP movement for the third quarter of 2025 on Thursday, November 27.

The CEIZ index is a coincident economic indicator, or a monthly composite indicator of the business cycle developed at the EIZ, and its purpose is to provide timely information about the current state of the business cycle, which is why the value of the CEIZ index changes simultaneously with changes in the business cycle.

This index is a single-number indicator of the business cycle that contains information that would otherwise need to be collected by analyzing a large number of different economic series, and unlike the time series of quarterly GDP, the CEIZ index provides a monthly assessment of the state of the economy, thereby offering more precise information about changes occurring over shorter periods.