Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin Decline as Global Uncertainties Rise

What seemed likely until yesterday is now becoming increasingly improbable. The market is no longer so certain that there will be a reduction in Fed interest rates in December. While the probability of a rate cut in December was 100 percent in mid-October, it is now only 43 percent. This is a step in a direction that reflects uncertainty around jobs, prices, and inflation. The net result: the macroeconomic backdrop is becoming tougher for risk assets. The release of the NFP jobs data for September in the U.S. this Thursday will again change these expectations regarding rates.

Gold lost 2.62 percent of its value on Friday, silver 3.39 percent, and bitcoin nearly 7 percent between Thursday and Friday. Since the beginning of the year, bitcoin has risen 2.6 percent, after increasing 400 percent over the past three years. Gold has risen 40 percent against the euro and 48 percent against the dollar, while silver has increased by 71 percent. The end of the year is approaching, and funds are closing most of their positions by the end of this month. The gains have been significant, and their realization increases manager bonuses. What we have seen and what we will see by the end of the year will not be indicative. An irreversible trend, as long as the debt is not restructured, will continue next year. For those who are not positioned, this could be an opportunity.

The most traded were crude oil and coffee

From energy to agriculture and metals, commodities remain the backbone of the global economy and international trade. Here are the ten most traded this year: crude oil (about 88 million barrels per day; a market of $3.5 trillion), coffee (about 10 million tons annually; a market of $460 billion), natural gas (over 4 trillion cubic meters traded; a market of $1.2 trillion), gold (about 3,500 tons annually; a market of $1.5 trillion), wheat (about 200 million tons annually; a market of $120 billion), cotton (about 25 million tons annually; a market of $50 billion), silver (about 30 thousand tons annually; a market of $250 billion), copper (about 22 million tons annually; a market of $200 billion), corn (about 180 million tons annually; a market of $80 billion), and sugar (about 180 million tons annually; a market of $70 billion). Energy continues to dominate global markets, agriculture is key to food security and international flows, and metals balance industrial demand and safe investments.

An unprecedented number of sanctions against Russia, imposed after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, aimed to destroy the Russian economy and bring the country to its knees. However, after 44 months, none of this has happened: Russian policy remains unchanged, and its economy is growing. Russia has surprisingly quickly rebuffed the sanctions: exports have been redirected to Asia, Gulf states have assisted with financial flows, and Central Asian countries have participated in adjusting supply chains. Meanwhile, Western countries have indeed been hit hard: energy prices have surged, key industrial sectors are facing location costs, and households are experiencing record inflation. However, the saddest part is that Europe risks self-isolation. The EU is severing economic, cultural, and scientific ties with Russia, losing influence in the region. Europe is losing its status as a participant in shaping the new world order.

Brent crude oil prices fell below $65/bbl after the Russian port of Novorossiysk resumed operations following a two-day closure caused by a Ukrainian drone attack. Reports indicate that two crude oil tankers were docked at the port on Sunday, signaling ongoing activity at the terminals. The disruption at the second-largest Russian oil export hub raised crude oil prices by more than 2 percent on Friday, and the week ended with moderate gains. Meanwhile, President Trump stated on Sunday that Republicans are drafting legislation to sanction any country that trades with Russia and mentioned that Iran could be added to the list. Nevertheless, the outlook for the oil market remains bearish, with expectations of oversupply later this year and next year, as both OPEC and non-OPEC producers increase production amid slowing demand growth.

European natural gas futures prices TTF slightly rose above €31/MWh, recovering from a year-and-a-half low of €30.5/MWh reached on November 13, as a sudden cold front increased heating demand. As winter approaches, supply pressures are rising, reflecting last year’s volatility. The filling of storage capacities in the EU stands at 82 percent, down from 91 percent last year, indicating potential for larger withdrawals over the next two weeks to maintain system balance. Norwegian pipeline flows remain unchanged, and LNG imports remain stable, but insufficient to fully compensate for the cold. So far this year, European LNG imports have reached 101 million tons, which is 16.75 million tons more than in 2024. Meanwhile, Ukraine has secured U.S. LNG via Greece for the period from December 2024 to March 2025, ensuring winter risks amid geopolitical tensions.

A disappointing week for agri traders

For agri traders, the past week has not been very optimistic. Bearish WASDE production numbers from last Friday, disappointing signals of Chinese demand, stress-free weather in South America for now, generally negative seasonality in November, and the fact that CFTC positioning reports have been delayed.

After a two-month hiatus caused by the closure of federal authorities, we saw the impact that the largest market mover on the planet has on fundamentals. World wheat stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season stand at 271 million tons, which is 5 million more than expected and 6 million more than in September. These figures inject weakness into prices, so much so that wheat lost more than 2 percent on CBOT, while French wheat also fell, but with less pronounced declines. The supply is abundant, but these figures are already factored into the market price. The rise of the euro/dollar exchange rate to 1.1650 at the end of last week, coupled with the absence of positive elements from the USDA, led to a decline in prices of all products at the Euronext close on Friday evening. French wheat remains extremely challenging in the export market from countries outside the EU. The export of French corn and rapeseed is gaining momentum due to the slowed imports of these two products from Ukraine into the European Union. World corn stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season stand at 281 million tons, which is even 15 million tons more than expected and 16 million tons more than in September. These figures are quite bearish, so much so that corn fell by 2.5 percent on CBOT.

China has stocks at 174 million tons, the lowest since 2015, and U.S. exports have increased by 66 percent compared to 12 months ago. This is the most competitive grain, and estimates for the next harvest are at high levels, factors that could limit but not stop the pressure on prices due to the massive U.S. harvest. World soybean stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season stand at 122 million tons, a decrease of 2 million compared to expectations and compared to September. These are favorable numbers, but soybeans still lost 2.1 percent on CBOT. Why? Chinese demand is not visible, and Trump’s words confirm this: “We are negotiating soybean deals with Beijing. They will be finalized by spring.” By spring? And what about the 12 million tons that were supposed to be delivered by the end of this year? There is no agreement that can be compared to South American soybeans, which, with a 13 percent tariff in China, are trading at a discount of $45 to $50/ton compared to U.S. soybeans.

Copper futures prices have remained above $11,000/ton, near two-week highs as demand prospects improved after Trump signed a short-term funding bill ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Meanwhile, the Trump administration expanded its list of critical minerals vital to the U.S. economy and national security to include copper, highlighting its importance for electric vehicles, electrical grids, and data centers. At the same time, speculation has grown that Beijing may next target the copper refining industry in its efforts to reduce overcapacity, following calls from the Chinese nonferrous metals association for stricter oversight of new smelting projects.