Up to 25 thousand construction workers could be unemployed by 2030.

What will happen to the Croatian economy after the source of funds from Brussels ‘dries up’ is already a question many are asking. However, there are also more concrete forecasts, such as the one made in a LinkedIn post by Danijela Dujlović, a licensed civil engineer. She estimated the number of layoffs in Croatian construction by 2030 due to the expected reduction in EU funds.

According to the latest forecasts (European Commission, IMF, HGK, and HZZ from 2025), Dujlović writes, it is estimated that the number of laid-off workers in the construction sector by 2030 will be between 15 thousand and 25 thousand. As she noted, there are currently about 100 thousand people employed in this sector, which means that between 15 percent and 25 percent of the total workforce could lose their jobs.

– This is part of a broader trend of slowdown following the end of EU funds, specifically the RRF/NPOO by 2026, and a decline in productivity without structural reforms. I believe it is too late for structural reforms in construction. The EU will not respond with new aid – only monitoring and the completion of existing funds is expected by 2026 – wrote Dujlović.

The Vice President of HGK for construction and transport Mirjana Čagalj commented on Danijela Dujlović’s statement regarding the reduction of construction activity in the coming years. She reminded that the construction sector has grown above long-term trends in recent years, precisely due to a strong influx of public funds, while private investments and productivity have not increased at the same pace. However, she did not want to specify how much the number of employees would decrease.

– A certain slowdown in the construction sector is expected after the end of the investment cycle financed by EU funds, especially after 2026. However, the amounts of possible employment reductions depend on the movements of private investments, interest rates, and the sector’s ability to increase productivity. HGK has long been warning about the structural weaknesses of the sector: low productivity compared to the EU average, a lack of qualified workforce, market fragmentation, and dependence on public investments.

The trend of slowdown is expected; it is a phase of correction, not a dramatic decline. The key to maintaining business continuity lies in strengthening the capacity for the digitalization of construction processes, consolidating smaller companies to compete on larger projects, and adapting business models to a higher share of private investments and sustainable construction, Čagalj emphasized.