As much as 37 percent of study places remain vacant, while employment is on the rise

Written by: Ivan Odrčić and Hrvoje Stojić, in collaboration with the HUP Association of Employers in Education

The quality of education directly impacts economic development. A difference of 50 points on the PISA math test accelerates GDP growth by 1 percentage point in the long run, while an increase in numerical literacy by one standard deviation results in 18 percent higher earnings in middle age, as shown by the longitudinal study The Economic Case for Education (European Expert Network on Economics of Education), conducted in several countries over half a century.

Therefore, the decline in the effectiveness of the school system in Croatia is concerning: the number of students in primary/secondary schools is decreasing, while the total number of employees in the education system is increasing, with an emphasis on non-teaching staff. Compared to 2019/2020, there are three percent fewer students, 1.6 percent more teachers, and as much as 7.4 percent more non-teaching staff. This partly reflects the engagement of assistants, psychologists and pedagogues after the pandemic, which is a positive measure for mental health.

However, Croatia is also among OECD countries with a faster increase in the average age of secondary school teachers, and as much as a quarter of those under 30 want to leave the education sector. This raises questions about deeper causes: overburdening, poor social perception, and inadequate career planning within the system.

By 2035, the number of children aged three to 18 in Croatia is expected to decrease by nine percent compared to 2022, according to the Investing in Education 2025 report. Higher quality and personalized education is possible, but without changes in investment and system management, inefficiency is on the rise. Although the State Pedagogical Standard mandates an optimal number of students in classrooms, in practice, more children with difficulties are included, which increases the burden on teachers and ‘diminishes’ the quality of teaching, especially in larger classes and shifts.

The mismatch between the declining number of students and the number of employees paradoxically places Croatia at the top of the IMD ranking for ‘attracting talent’ based on the student-to-teacher ratio, as the number of students has been falling for years while the number of employees is rising, resulting in no other country having a better ratio.

Fewer students, but more studies and study programs

In higher education, the trends are even worse: after the summer enrollment period in 2025, there were 15,259 vacant places (37 percent of all enrollment places!), and 61 programs had no students enrolled, many in the STEM field, which is crucial for economic growth.

The problem is not a lack of places, but a lack of interest and alignment with what young people see as promising. Even more concerning is that the number of regular students is 8.2 percent lower than five years ago, while the number of teachers has increased by 3.9 percent, and non-teaching staff by as much as 8.5 percent. Over the past ten years, the number of high school graduates enrolling in studies has decreased by more than nine thousand, mainly due to demographic trends and emigration. Despite this, new higher education institutions and programs are emerging, along with the administrative burden on the system.

Necessary modernization and rewarding teachers based on results

In Croatia, the development and modernization of STEM subjects, as well as the introduction of a performance evaluation system for those educating new generations for the labor market, are insufficiently supported. The absence of performance-based rewards is not only a relic of socialism but also a failure to keep pace with a time that requires stronger rewards for teachers in STEM and deficit areas to improve curricular quality.

Equally important for the quality of the system is a more objective student assessment system, which would provide real feedback on achievements. Today, we witness an inflation of honor students in primary schools, as revealed by PISA tests, National exams, and the State Matura.

Part of the problem also lies in the strong pressure from parents on schools and teachers, which contributes to the inflation of ‘honor students’ and undermines the objectivity of assessments. The consequence is that students and parents receive incorrect feedback about actual knowledge during education, leading many to choose ‘wrong’ high school programs and thereby reduce their chances for a successful career. Additionally, parents miss the opportunity to react during classes when there would be time for changes in approach, instruction, or other interventions.

Only 6% of students have advanced mathematical skills

We constantly talk about the quality of educational outcomes – the knowledge, skills, and competencies that students actually acquire – because it is the topic of all topics. At the same time, we must reject the thesis that an increase in defense spending to five percent of GDP by 2030 automatically impacts education and healthcare.

Croatia allocates 5.3 percent of GDP for education, above the EU average (4.7 percent), and 7.8 percent of GDP for healthcare, also above the average (7.3 percent). Therefore, social sectors are not neglected – but the real problem is not how much we spend, but what we get in return. As long as we lag behind in PISA tests, it is clear that the system does not lack money, but efficiency, connection to the labor market, and accountability for results.

According to the PISA results of 2022, which measures the actual outcomes of primary education, our students achieve an average of 463 points in mathematics, below the OECD average. Even more concerning is that 23 percent of students do not reach the basic level of reading literacy, while only six percent in mathematics reach the highest levels 5 and 6, which denote advanced problem-solving skills.

Despite an investment of $75,000 (PPP) per student for primary education, results remain below average. PISA analyses show that after a certain threshold, higher investments yield diminishing returns – the problem lies in the structure of investments and the quality of teaching, not in the amount of money.

Vocational education is a positive example of reform

According to OECD analyses, Croatia already had gross salaries for secondary school teachers with ten years of experience of $3,044 per month (in purchasing power parity) in 2022, higher than in six comparable EU members: the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria. Real increases in high double-digit percentages significantly closer to the EU average only followed in the next two years through a series of coefficient corrections and collective agreements, but without measurable tracking of educational outcomes, although it is clear that results are influenced by numerous social and cognitive factors, not just salary levels.

In the structure of education costs, the largest portion of funds is allocated for salary payments – 29.6 percent in 2023, slightly above the EU average of 29.3 percent and one percentage point above the average for the CEE region. However, while this share is stable in the EU, it is increasing in Croatia (+1.4 percentage points since 2019) and will further rise due to high increases by 2025. At the same time, investments in employee training are decreasing, so the increase in education expenditures does not necessarily bring greater quality, as teachers lack adequate support.

Extending primary education is often highlighted as a good solution (Croatia has anticipated it in its education development strategy since 2014), but longer schooling does not guarantee better skills or higher quality workers if curricula, teaching methods, and connections to the labor market are not adjusted. This has been successfully achieved in secondary vocational education through the development of 146 new occupational standards and the adaptation of programs in collaboration with employers. New programs started this autumn, and we will have the first graduates with that knowledge in less than four years.

Research shows that an additional year of schooling globally brings about nine percent higher earnings over a lifetime, while in Croatian conditions, a more realistic return is five to seven percent, considering the structure of our economy and lower demand for highly qualified professions.

Given that the Croatian economy is predominantly service-oriented and tourism-based, a higher share of highly educated workers does not automatically bring greater benefits. Expecting an educational structure similar to the most developed EU countries without changing the economic foundation is simply unrealistic.

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