Arthur Hayes Claims Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle is Over

Arthur Hayes, one of the co-founders of the first crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, says that the conventional four-year cycle of Bitcoin prices is no longer useful. According to him, the current bull market could last much longer due to loose monetary policy.

His opinion contrasts with long-held beliefs about the crypto market and shifts the narrative from a mechanical measurement of time to momentum driven by macro conditions.

Hayes Debunks the Myth of the Four-Year Cycle, Liquidity is King

In a new essay titled ‘Long Live the King!’ recently published on his Substack, Hayes argued that many traders have incorrectly applied the rigid four-year template to Bitcoin cycles, even amidst changes in the global monetary environment.

He stated that past peaks coincided with a reduction in dollar and yuan credit, not just with halving schedules. He also suggested that current conditions are sufficiently different to break the pattern.

The crypto entrepreneur pointed to the U.S. Treasury’s decision to issue more treasury bills and withdraw about $2.5 trillion from the Fed’s Reverse Repo program as a liquidity injection into the markets. Furthermore, he highlighted that the Federal Reserve has continued to lower interest rates, despite inflation still being above target, and that two rate cuts later this year are now priced into the futures markets.

Criticizing cycle enthusiasts, Hayes called out the blind application of historical rhythm, stating that traders want to apply the pattern without understanding why it worked in the past. Hayes argues that the interplay of money supply and price, primarily in dollars and yuan, remains the true driver.

Market reactions have been mixed. Some analysts, like Raoul Pal, still see echoes of the structure of past cycles, even suggesting that they could become prolonged. Others are more cautious. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that if Bitcoin breaks the four-year cycle, it could trigger a ‘dramatic’ price movement.

Historical Context, Counterarguments, and What Lies Ahead

To understand Hayes’s thesis, we must revisit the three full Bitcoin cycles to date. In the phase from 2009 to 2013, excessive credit growth from the U.S. and China reversed, stifling momentum for a time. During 2013 to 2017, Hayes attributes much of the boom to Chinese credit expansion rather than pure dollar flows, and the subsequent slowdown accelerated the decline. In the COVID era, liquidity surges in U.S. dollars also overwhelmed Chinese restraint, and that ended when the Fed began tightening monetary policy in late 2021, with Bitcoin peaking in April of that year.

The former BitMEX CEO now claims that the next phase is different. While China may not be the primary driver, its turn away from deflation could act as a foundation for global credit dynamics and remove a key liquidity counterbalance from the U.S. In his view, the world is entering a regime where cheaper money and greater supply could further fuel Bitcoin’s growth.

However, skeptics point out that economic risks such as recession, banking stress, and inflation overshoot could reverse the liquidity narrative.