Home / Business and Politics / Uptober is upon us, here’s what it means for bitcoin and the crypto market

Uptober is upon us, here’s what it means for bitcoin and the crypto market

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As the clock ticks into the last quarter of the year, traders begin to yearn for better profits. Fortunately for crypto investors, many believe in the powerful legend of ‘uptober’, the month when their investments will rise more than ever before.

The concept of uptober stems from the fact that bitcoin has had a ‘green’ October nine out of the past ten years, said Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at the crypto platform Nexo. The analyst highlighted 2017 and 2021 as particularly good years, with bitcoin rising by 50% and 40%, respectively.

Analysts at investment bank Compass Point explained in a report that these gains in October have historically been supported by weakness in the market in September, which made all gains appear larger.

However, we did not quite get the ‘red September’ that was expected. While some cryptocurrencies are indeed in decline, the Compass Point report noted that the price of bitcoin rose by nearly five percent in September of this year.

Uptober illustrates how seasonal financial markets can be, with similar phenomena such as ‘Santa Claus rally’.

As a result, uptober has become a cultural meme deeply embedded in crypto folklore. Scanning social media as September comes to a close, you will find countless traders praying for October to answer their prayers for profit.

– We have been through enough pain, we need uptober – wrote crypto influencer The DeFi Edge on X.

However, some analysts warn that much of this is just social media hype and that institutions are paying attention to much more than just a meme.

– Retail investors often cite seasonal memes like uptober on social media as part of the market’s cultural identity. These narratives can influence short-term sentiment and leveraged trading behavior – said Jake Kennis, senior research analyst at Nansen.

– However, it is more likely that professional traders base their decisions on fundamentals, macro conditions, liquidity, and technical setups, rather than calendar-based memes – he added.

In other words, it is more about community psychology than trading strategy.

Unique tailwinds

Similarly, from KuCoin Ventures, they stated that they do not build their investment thesis around seasonal narratives like uptober. Additionally, the fund observes positive investor sentiment, as this can signal that capital will flow into the market, calling it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

An analyst from Bitfinex said they combine the hype around uptober with positioning models and complex strategies.

– This October comes with unique tailwinds. The Fed has just turned towards easing, U.S. spot ETFs are consistently absorbing supply (daily flows averaging over $150 million), and bitcoin has maintained key support at $110,000 despite record option expirations – said the Bitfinex analyst.

From KuCoin Ventures, they expressed being ‘cautiously optimistic’ for a green October, while Kennis from Nansen expanded that view for the entire fourth quarter.

Ultimately, while history suggests that October is a reliably bullish month, short-term predictions are inherently unreliable due to the chaotic nature of the markets and the world.

KuCoin Ventures highlighted potential macro risks from politics and geopolitics, as well as the Fed’s monetary policy, which could potentially undermine any gains from uptober.

For example, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Hamas has three or four days to respond to his plan for the future of Gaza, which could potentially end in escalating tensions or peace in the region. Both outcomes are likely to impact the markets.

– Whether it’s uptober or downtober will depend less on superstition and more on how these forces align. Still, history suggests you would be brave to bet against bitcoin in October – said Kalchev from Nexo.

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