In accordance with announcements, France and the UK, two major European countries that are also permanent members of the UN Security Council, have recognized Palestine, urging other countries to do the same. Macron’s France did this as part of its grand New York showcase, a summit on the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict co-organized in New York with Saudi Arabia on the margins of the UN General Assembly’s autumn session. Starmer’s UK (accompanied by Canada and Australia) did this a little earlier. Croatia’s foreign policy regarding this issue is predictably divided.
President Zoran Milanović is a fervent advocate for the recognition of Palestine. In his New York escapade about the ‘Israeli killing regime’ and the Palestinian just struggle, he has gone the furthest yet in his anti-Zionist rhetoric, which is considered a contemporary expression of anti-Semitism. Fortunately for Croatia, the reach of his messages in the international arena is limited to the margins of meetings with Croats in New York, a few lines in Croatian media, and it will certainly be recorded in the history of Croatian-Israeli bilateral relations. In contrast, Prime Minister Plenković’s policy towards the possible recognition of Palestine fundamentally starts from the two-state proposal. However, he believes that the Palestinian state should be recognized at the conclusion of the peace process, along with mutual recognition of the two states.
The Effect of a Logjam in the Peace Process
There is a drastic difference between these two approaches. The very core of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is that the Palestinian authorities do not recognize the State of Israel, and the declared main political goal of the radical, jihadist Hamas is the destruction of Israel, or its return to the ‘world of Islam’ and the extermination of Jews, as confirmed by actions, including the attack on Israeli Jewish settlements on October 7, 2023. However, the conflict has a broader context. Of the 22 member states of the Arab League, which are the closest and broader surroundings of Israel, only five have recognized Israel so far. These are the closest Western (read: American) allies from the Arab world (Egypt, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco).
Of the 57 member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), in addition to the aforementioned five states, only Turkey has recognized Israel. This means that 51 out of 57 OIC members, from West Africa through Central to Southeast Asia, have not recognized Israel to this day, which is an institutionally strong state with a functional democracy of the Western type. In contrast, all member states of the OIC have recognized Palestine, which lacks the fundamental prerogatives of a state, borders, and institutions of the rule of law, governed by more or less radicalized Islamist and tribal groups. In that environment and context, Israel certainly has reasons to feel threatened, or to be concerned for its very survival. Plenković’s approach to the recognition of Palestine is therefore rational and politically pragmatic – recognition as the final phase of the process. Croatia, due to its national interests, must not jeopardize its partnership with the USA by recognizing Palestine, nor remain isolated in the EU. Alignment with German policy is a pragmatic solution.
