Leonardo da Vinci and Baba Vanga Would Not Fear for Their Jobs

Weaver Ned Ludd smashed production molds in a factory in Anstey near Leicester in 1779, reportedly out of rage because his boss whipped him as a slacker. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the Luddite movement emerged in England, named after him, whose supporters smashed machines believing they were responsible for workers losing their jobs. Similar thoughts can be heard regarding artificial intelligence (AI), although no one has yet figured out how to smash it like a machine, should anyone follow the example of the Luddites.

Empathy for Algorithms

What does predictive analytics suggest, or to put it simply – what are the predictions for future jobs? The Ministry of Labor, Pension System, Family and Social Policy states that the demand for jobs in simpler occupations, such as agricultural workers, delivery personnel, construction workers, and salespeople, will grow, as well as in healthcare and social care sectors (such as nurses, social workers, and counselors). We know that jobs related to digital technology are growing the fastest. They include experts in big data, financial technology engineers, artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists, and software and application developers. The Ministry also notes that specialists in green and energy transition are in demand, including those for autonomous and electric vehicles, environmental engineers, and renewable energy engineers.

On the other hand, they expect that all administrative jobs will see the largest decline (administrative assistants, secretaries, cashiers), which is why lifelong learning is extremely important. In this regard, the Ministry has established a voucher system for the education of unemployed and employed individuals.

– Although AI and robotics will change the labor market, skilled professions will remain highly sought after. The reason is that such professions require manual dexterity, adaptation to the real environment, contact, and problem-solving in unpredictable situations. Therefore, skilled professions with practical knowledge, such as electricians, carpenters, plumbers, and butchers, will remain stable and in demand, while digital and green professions will become increasingly prominent, which will be key to the future of the labor market – the Ministry states.

Alen Mrvac, a public relations expert at Alma Career Croatia, which includes the MojPosao portal, first warns that forecasting is somewhat of a ‘Baba Vanga’ game because the labor market is changing faster than ever. However, something can be said with certainty even today. According to an analysis by the U.S. Career Institute, the most resilient to the onslaught of artificial intelligence, automation, and robots will be jobs that require what machines still cannot offer. This refers to human empathy, creativity, and judgment in changing circumstances, precisely what we were told by the Ministry. Because machines, Mrvac says, can replace routine jobs, even create quality content, but they struggle to have a conversation with a patient, inspire a student, or make an audience laugh.

– At least for now. On the other hand, it will be the simple, repetitive jobs, those that can easily be turned into algorithms, that will be the first to fall under the impact of technology. Accountants, administrators, cashiers, or certain transport workers are already feeling these changes. In other words, the more predictable and easier a job is to describe in steps, the greater the likelihood that technology will take it over to some extent – says Mrvac.

Transformation of Professions

However, HR expert and operational manager at Europro employment agency Karlo Vrbanac reminds that the IT sector shows fluctuations. Microsoft recently announced the layoff of about 9,000 employees due to reorganization, but it is still unclear in which direction this will develop. He states that the number of entry-level positions, including internships and apprenticeships, has fallen by 32 percent since November 2022, when the commercial rise of ChatGPT prompted a rapid transformation in the way companies operate and hire. Nevertheless, he concludes, it is more about a change in the structure of jobs rather than necessarily a loss of jobs. The open question remains whether AI will justify expectations in the long term and grow exponentially or remain just a tool for optimizing existing processes. Until then, professions that require specific skills and knowledge continue to see strong demand and offer stable foundations for career development.

This is also stated by the Croatian Employment Service (HZZ). Currently, according to its statistics, there are no significant changes due to the impact of AI. Still, in absolute numbers, the most sought-after positions are salespeople (9,953 needs reported to the Service in the first seven months of this year), nurses/technicians (8,984 reported needs), cleaners (7,823 reported needs), and waiters (5,885 reported needs). This arrangement has not changed much in recent years, and we are not yet witnessing the filling of jobs by robots and artificial intelligence.

– However, it is important to be realistic and expect such changes. But they will not happen overnight. Over time, many professions will have to transform, turn to the use of AI, but it is unlikely that artificial intelligence will replace humans. We will still be a tourist country and will want a waiter to bring us a drink and wish us a good day. Perhaps a human will take the order, and a robot will bring it to us, but it is pretentious to say that this profession will disappear – they say at HZZ.

They cite the example of the development of autonomous vehicles. The need for drivers may decrease, but there will still be a need for a person to set the route that the AI will have to follow. Due to the scarcity of these professions, not only in Croatia but also worldwide, this currently seems like a distant future.

– However, it will be crucial to know how to use AI so that it serves as a tool and assistance in our work. It will be important to critically discern what is accurate, applicable, and when AI provides inaccurate or fabricated information that is not based on real facts, or, colloquially speaking, when it hallucinates. One will need to know something about the given topic so that artificial intelligence does not lead us astray – they say at HZZ.

Leaders Are Needed

Partner at Amrop Adria Matej Mrak and project manager at Amrop Zagreb Ines Bokan say that there is an increasing demand for jobs that involve and combine specific knowledge, managerial competencies, and the ability to work in complex systems. Thus, managerial functions focused on transformations and decision-making in an environment of constant change are becoming increasingly sought after. Interdisciplinarity is increasingly in focus: companies want managers and leaders who have the ability to integrate different areas (e.g., human resources and technology, finance and technology…). Interdisciplinarity is in focus, and managers are expected to provide visionary leadership, which increases their responsibility and expectations from them.

– Due to generational changes, the human approach and soft skills are becoming increasingly important and sought after. Those who will enhance their communication, negotiation, and team leadership skills alongside interdisciplinarity will be able to present themselves better in the labor market and have a more successful career – says Bokan.

In the search for leaders, Mrak adds, this means that the focus is shifting from ‘who has the most experience’ to ‘who has the ability to lead into the future.’ Mrvac states that one in five workers in Croatia already fears job loss due to AI and automation. Ultimately, he concludes, the most protected will not be those with the best or most secure jobs, but those who continuously invest in themselves, learn, and adapt.

– Change is inevitable, but the good news is that it is coming slowly enough for us to be ready – emphasizes Mrvac.