Used Cars Take Over Europe: Decline of New Vehicles, Growth of Old Ones

The European automotive industry is under increasing pressure, both from tariffs imposed by Donald Trump and from Chinese competition that has already dangerously entered the European new car market. It is also important to consider the regulations aligning with European rules on the transition to electric vehicles and the announcement of a ban on the sale of vehicles with traditional engines in the Union by 2035. All of this creates significant pressure on the industry, which is also reflected in the sales of new cars.

However, although the new car market is experiencing a decline, the market for used old cars recorded significant growth in 2024, which continued into 2025. Despite supply issues, the five largest European markets—France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Italy—recorded an increase in used car transactions, while the new car market faced a decline in registrations in most countries.

Growth of the Used Car Market in Europe

According to estimates, the European used car market was valued at $65.9 billion in 2024, and it is expected to grow by an additional two billion to $67.9 billion by the end of 2025. Long-term projections predict that the market will reach $95.2 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.32 percent.

Used cars, besides being more affordable, play a crucial role in the automotive ecosystem as they provide more cost-effective solutions and allow consumers to change vehicles more quickly within and across national borders. Cross-border trade is strongly represented, with Germany, France, and the UK serving as major exporters, while Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and even Croatia represent the largest importers of used vehicles. This has also been facilitated by digital platforms such as Auto1 Group, Mobile.de, AramisAuto, or the domestic Neostar, which have transformed and simplified the buying and selling of used cars, reducing information asymmetry and increasing transaction transparency. Additionally, companies like CarVertical have emerged, which easily verify the status of vehicles, providing extra security when purchasing a used car.

The Autovista24 portal analyzed used car sales data in Europe by country, confirming in their analysis that France, Germany, and Italy recorded a decline in new car sales in the first three months of this year, while Spain and the UK saw slight growth. Nevertheless, the used car market in each country recorded growth, as more and more buyers are choosing older and cheaper models as their next car.

Results in the Five Largest European Markets

The French used car market ended 2024 with a slight growth of 3 percent, despite declines in the fourth quarter. A total of 5.35 million vehicles were sold, with gasoline vehicles accounting for 36 percent of sales and an 18 percent increase. Used electric vehicles (BEVs) rose by 54 percent, reaching a market share of 2.5 percent, while the average age of vehicles in France increased to 12 years.

The German used car market grew by 7.4 percent in 2024, with nearly 6.48 million transactions. The fourth quarter recorded a growth of 5 percent, despite a 0.7 percent decline in the new car market. The largest growth was recorded in April (+27.5%).

The Spanish used car market ended the year with a growth of 9.6 percent, totaling 2.07 million vehicles sold. Diesel vehicles led with a 52 percent share, gasoline vehicles with 37 percent, while BEVs and PHEVs recorded significant growth of 54.7 and 82.4 percent, respectively. The average age of used vehicles remained stable at 11.2 years.

The UK recorded a growth in the used car market of 5.5 percent, with 7.64 million vehicles sold in 2024. The year was stable, and the demand for used BEVs increased by 57.4 percent to a record 188,382 units, accounting for 2.5 percent of the market.

Italy concluded the fourth quarter of 2024 with a growth of 8.1 percent, and the entire year ended with a total of 5.47 million vehicles sold. The strongest month was October (+10.5%), and the market recorded only two months of decline.

The Vehicle Fleet in Croatia is Getting Older

The latest data from the Croatian Vehicle Center (CVH) on the age of vehicles registered in Croatia in 2024 shows a worrying trend of aging in the vehicle fleet. Of the total 2.75 million registered vehicles, as many as 1.8 million or 65.65 percent are older than ten years, while the share of new and newer vehicles (up to five years old) remains relatively low.

The largest group consists of passenger vehicles, with 2,001,266 registered, and their average age is 14.01 years. In this category, as much as 65.76 percent of vehicles are older than ten years, while only 15.14 percent are younger than five years.

The problem is even more pronounced with light commercial vehicles, where the average age is 11.66 years, and nearly 65 percent of vehicles are older than ten years. For heavy commercial vehicles, the average age is as high as 12.50 years, while buses average 17.26 years old.

New Vehicles Make Up Only a Small Share

Vehicles that are only one year old make up just 6.2 percent of the total vehicle fleet, or 170,545 vehicles. Another 327,164 vehicles (11.9 percent) are between two and five years old, and 446,554 vehicles (16.25 percent) are between six and nine years old.

The youngest average vehicle fleet consists of trailers and semi-trailers with an average age of about 7.3 to 9 years, while the oldest vehicles are those in categories L5 (motorcycles with sidecars – 55.94 years on average) and L4 (motorcycles with sidecars – 31.3 years), although they are numerically very rare.

The data clearly indicates that the Croatian vehicle fleet is aging rapidly. Such a structure of the vehicle fleet has multiple consequences; older vehicles are often less safe, pollute the environment more, and consume more fuel compared to newer ones. Additionally, the aging of the vehicle fleet also indicates the weak purchasing power of citizens and the high costs of acquiring new vehicles.

Electric Vehicles and Challenges of Residual Value

One of the key challenges of the European used car market is the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and the uncertainty surrounding their residual value and long-term reliability. While the adoption of EVs is accelerating due to government incentives, emission regulations, and growing consumer interest, traditional internal combustion vehicles are exposed to faster depreciation, especially older models. Furthermore, the market for used electric vehicles is still underdeveloped, with limited data on battery degradation, repair costs, and predictable longevity. The lack of standardized assessments of battery conditions and uneven charging infrastructure further complicate cross-border trade in electric vehicles. For instance, Norway, which leads in EV penetration, faces challenges in exporting older models due to varying levels of acceptance in other EU countries and general distrust towards used electric vehicles.

The European used car market shows greater resilience compared to the new car market. Rising sales, driven by higher prices of new vehicles, the expansion of electric mobility, and changes in consumer behavior, suggest a continuation of positive trends in 2025. Cross-border trade, digital platforms, and innovative ownership models further strengthen the market, but challenges related to EV technology and uncertainty regarding residual value require careful monitoring.