Price of European Wheat Declines, Copper Prices Stable

The price of European wheat fell at the beginning of September to 170 euros per ton, marking the lowest level this season. During August, the price ranged around 190-198 euros per ton, but the market reacted to expectations of abundant supply and surplus in the EU.

SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 400 thousand tons, while EU soft wheat exports in the summer were about 44 percent lower than in the same period last year.

Weaker EU exports and a strong Russian presence in the global market further pressure prices. Regarding production, current estimates indicate that Russia will produce 4 to 5 million tons more wheat year-on-year.

In the US, the harvest of spring wheat is 85 percent complete, which is above average. Considering the increased supply from the Black Sea, weaker EU exports, and recent price corrections, the Croatian Employers’ Association expects wheat prices to remain at current levels by the end of the year.

China Abolishes Subsidies for Copper Products

The price of copper is currently stable at around 4.6 dollars per pound. On the supply side, concerns are present as China, which holds more than half of the world’s refining capacity, is experiencing stoppages and weaker processing performance due to low profit margins.

At the same time, the Chinese government has abolished subsidies for copper products, and the US imposed a 50 percent tariff on copper semi-finished products at the beginning of August.

The price movement is also strongly influenced by the slowdown in industrial activity in China and the weakening of the US dollar.

On the demand side, global consumption of refined copper in 2024 reached nearly 27 million tons (+3.2 percent year-on-year), and long-term forecasts indicate nearly double growth by 2035 due to the green transition, electrification, and the development of the AI industry.

The recent announcement of the merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, valued at 53 billion dollars, confirms the strategic importance of copper. Therefore, the Croatian Employers’ Association expects copper prices to range around 5-6 dollars per pound by the end of the year.