By gathering the Xi bloc, Trump is signaled that he is also ready for a deal

In just one week, Chinese leader Xi Jinping sent a response to Trump’s initiatives for resetting the world order. First, with a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Tianjin, and then with a large military parade in Beijing in honor of the victory over Japan in World War II.

Both events had the same fundamental messages. First, China is the one that will provide a security-defense umbrella for the Asian continent, and gradually for Europe, which it considers a sort of Asian geopolitical extension. And second, China is the one that will be a bulwark against Western imperialism led by the USA. The question is what is realistic about that. What is the real threat, we would say from the perspective of defending fundamental Western values? And what is merely a convenient show of strength to secure a better position in negotiations for a big deal with Trump’s America?

Lack of Common Values

SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), founded in 2001 in response to the expansion of NATO and the EU into the former Soviet bloc countries, had the ambition to become the Asian counterpart to NATO under Chinese leadership. Statistically speaking, the summit in Tianjin gathered a truly impressive number (25) of heads of state and government. Alongside host Xi, the most notable name among the participants was Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The best political marketing of the summit was Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which was quickly interpreted as his betrayal of the alliance with Trump and revenge for Trump’s punitive tariffs. Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was also present, formally still a NATO member, while Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, a more reliable American ally than Erdoğan despite Egypt not being a NATO member, sent his Prime Minister to the summit. There were also about twenty other heads of state and government from the Asian world that we usually categorize as authoritarian leaders or despots, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

However, at first glance, a fundamental obstacle emerges for the SCO to become the Asian NATO – the lack of positive common values. NATO, as a defensive alliance of European states, is based on defending the values of Western (European) democracies against the then-communist revolutions. The only common value among SCO members is opposition to the West, namely the USA. And that opposition ceases when cooperation with the despised West seems a more profitable option. Major SCO members India and Pakistan are in a constant low-intensity war conflict over Kashmir, and Armenia and Azerbaijan are in a similar state over Nagorno-Karabakh.

And as the icing on the cake – it was American President Trump (not Xi) who brokered some sort of truce between India and Pakistan regarding Kashmir and between Armenia and Azerbaijan just weeks before the SCO summit. Only no one noticed that this allowed him to step deep into Xi’s and the SCO’s desired space. In NATO, alarms go off when member states show disagreement on key issues of world politics. In the SCO, it is almost a tradition for members to fight among themselves and fear each other (e.g., from Islamic regimes within the SCO).

Everyone Wants a Deal with Trump

Besides the lack of common values, there is also no fundamental solidarity in the SCO. While in NATO’s European wing, there is drama when Trump, even if only for tactical reasons, questions Article 5, i.e., the collective defense of member states, in the SCO it is normal for Putin to practically remain silent, and Xi to mumble something, after the USA, in alliance with Israel, weakens or temporarily destroys Iranian nuclear military capabilities through targeted military operations. Because Putin wants a deal with Trump, preferably without Xi’s umbrella. And Xi ultimately wants a deal with Trump, which he does not want to jeopardize because of the theocratic regime in Iran.

And especially Indian Prime Minister Modi wants it, for whom China is a much greater competitor and threat than America, so after participating in the SCO summit, he noticeably skipped the Chinese military parade and the commemoration of the victory of the Chinese anti-fascist victory. However, it was graced by two irrelevant European debtor leaders: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić (who cannot refuse) and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (who must go where Viktor Orbán does not want to be seen).

At the end of the day, the SCO summit and the large military parade showed that on the open geopolitical stage, the new eastern bloc led by Xi remains extremely inferior to the West, which it despises. Its forte is capillary action through the globalized economy, open society, and international institutions. But by gathering the bloc against the West, Xi also signaled to Trump that he is – ready for a deal.