Key Economic Events to Watch This Week for Bitcoin

Bitcoin has extended last week’s correction, ending the month on a negative note, and experts are anticipating key macroeconomic data that could influence the upcoming decision by the U.S. central bank regarding interest rate cuts.

At the center of attention are three macroeconomic reports: initial jobless claims, productivity in the U.S., and the August employment report as the Fed faces conflicting data with rising inflation and a weakening labor market.

‘Fed is walking a tightrope,’ said Kurt S. Altrichter, founder of Ivory Hill Wealth Advisory, in a post on X on Sunday. Cutting rates too early risks reigniting inflation in a 1970s-style, while keeping them stable could trigger a recession by crushing the labor market, Altrichter added.

As a result, the pressure on Chairman Jerome Powell is immense, making this week’s data release more critical than usual.

All eyes are now on the initial jobless claims on Thursday, which track new applications for unemployment benefits. While the consensus forecast of 230,000 claims aligns with 229,000 from the previous week, a reading above this threshold would signal further softening in the labor market and add significant pressure on the Fed to consider rate cuts.

On the same day, the final revision of productivity and unit labor costs in the U.S. will follow. Preliminary productivity growth for the second quarter of 2025 is set at +2.4 percent quarter-on-quarter on a year-over-year basis, with unit labor costs at +1.6 percent, a decline from 6.9 percent in the first quarter, according to the August report.

A downward revision of productivity or an upward revision of unit labor costs would raise concerns about persistent inflationary pressures, as higher labor costs per unit of output could signal price increases driven by wages.

Forecasts for the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls from Friday set the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent, up from July’s 4.2 percent, with payrolls adding 75,000 jobs, slightly above July’s 73,000, and wages rising by 0.3 percent compared to the previous month.

– We expect payrolls to come in below consensus, around 40,000 to 60,000 versus the expected 75,000, with unemployment likely rising to 4.3 percent – said Xu Han, director of Liquid Fund at HashKey Capital.

He warned that hiring is gradually weakening, but markets may be underestimating the risk of larger layoffs, a scenario that could push the Fed towards not just a single 25 basis point cut in September, but a series of cuts by the end of 2025.

This perspective is counterintuitive as it suggests that a weaker report on growth and employment may not be negative for bitcoin.

Instead, it could provide investors with the necessary clarity on the Fed’s course, acting as a green light for risk assets like bitcoin by fostering expectations of looser monetary policy and increased liquidity.

Regardless, experts remain cautious with bitcoin due to the bearish September season.

Bitcoin ended August with a loss of 6.47 percent and is currently trading at a price of $109,440, according to CoinGecko data.