CEIZ Index Indicates GDP Growth of 3.3 Percent in the Second Quarter

The movement of CEIZ index suggests that the Croatian economy will grow by 3.3 percent in the second quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, according to the estimate from the Economic Institute, Zagreb (EIZ). In June 2025, the CEIZ index recorded an increase of 0.66 index points compared to May 2025. At the same time, compared to June 2024, the index value decreased by a negligible 0.09 index points, as stated in the announcement on the EIZ website.

When observing the behavior of individual components of the index, three components of the CEIZ index recorded a higher seasonally adjusted value in June 2025 compared to the previous month – the number of tourist arrivals, state budget revenues from value-added tax, and retail trade turnover, while the volume of industrial production recorded a decrease in seasonally adjusted value. Compared to the same month of the previous year, all components of the index achieved an increase in value.

– The described movement of the index suggests that economic activity of GDP in the second quarter of 2025 continues to grow at a slightly accelerated pace compared to the previous quarter. The first estimate based on data for April, May, and June 2025 suggests that the annual GDP growth rate in the second quarter of this year could amount to 3.3 percent – emphasized EIZ analysts.

The EIZ notes that the monthly estimate of GDP growth based on the value of the CEIZ index is indicative and should primarily be used as information about the current state and direction of the business cycle in the Republic of Croatia. The Croatian Bureau of Statistics (DZS) will publish the first estimate of GDP movement for the second quarter of 2025 tomorrow, August 27.

The CEIZ index is a coincident economic indicator, or a monthly composite indicator of the business cycle developed at the EIZ, and its purpose is to provide timely information about the current state of the business cycle, which is why the value of the CEIZ index changes simultaneously with changes in the business cycle.

This index is a single-number indicator of the business cycle that contains information that would otherwise need to be collected by analyzing a large number of different economic series, and unlike the time series of quarterly GDP, the CEIZ index provides a monthly assessment of the state of the economy, thereby offering more precise information about changes occurring over shorter periods.