Trump claims he has broad authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which is intended to address “extraordinary” threats during a national emergency.
Options on the Table
– This ruling represents a setback for the administration’s tariff plans and increases uncertainty, but it may not change the ultimate outcome for most major U.S. trading partners, Goldman Sachs analysts said in their analytical note.
– For now, we expect the Trump administration to find other ways to impose tariffs, they added.
The Wall Street bank stated that the ruling blocks the basic 10 percent tariff that Trump imposed on most imports, as well as additional tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico – but not sector-specific tariffs, such as those on steel, aluminum, and automobiles.
However, according to Goldman, the Trump administration still has other legal avenues to impose tariffs. This includes Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, Section 301, and Section 338 of the Trade Act of 1930.
Section 122 does not require a formal investigation and could therefore be one of the quickest ways to circumvent the judicial obstacle.
– The administration could quickly replace the universal 10 percent tariff with a similar tariff of up to 15 percent under Section 122, Goldman analysts said. They noted, however, that such a measure could last a maximum of 150 days, after which a decision from Congress is required.
Trump could also quickly initiate investigations under Section 301 against key U.S. trading partners, thereby establishing a bureaucratic basis for tariffs, although Goldman notes that this process would take at least a few weeks.
Tariffs under Section 232, which are already in place for steel, aluminum, and automobile imports, could also be expanded to other sectors, while Section 338 allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 50 percent on imports from countries that discriminate against the U.S.
Goldman noted that this last section has not been used so far.
What About the Supreme Court?
James Ransdell, a partner at the law firm Cassidy Levy Kent, stated that the court opinion represents the first of many unresolved lawsuits — and the first substantive decision by a federal court that truly addresses the essence of the plaintiffs’ lawsuit, CNBC reports.
Ransdell said that the speed with which the Trump administration filed the appeal is “very unusual” and suggests that the government may be working all night to prepare a request for an emergency stay of the ruling’s implementation.
He added that it is “certainly possible” that the Supreme Court will ultimately make a final decision.
– There are not many precedents regarding this specific legal provision and similar actions by the president, so the Supreme Court may be interested in considering the case, Ransdell told CNBC’s “The China Connection.”
Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, stated that Trump ‘very well’ understands how to use the courts to buy time.
– The first thing he will likely do is file an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court… seeking a ruling that would allow him to keep the tariffs in place while the appeal process is ongoing, Blitz said on Thursday.
– This imperial executive order had to eventually face the courts… The difference between a monarchy and a constitutional democracy is the legal system, he added.
