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Markets in the Shadow of Tariffs: Dollar Slightly Strengthened, Wall Street Rose

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In the currency markets, the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies slightly strengthened last week, reflecting a modest improvement in global investors’ risk appetite after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed the implementation of tariffs on European imports, and separately, a court ruled that he exceeded his presidential powers by imposing high tariffs on trading partners.
 
The dollar index, which shows the value of the U.S. dollar against six major world currencies, strengthened by 0.3 percent to 99.44 points, after a decline of 1.9 percent in the previous week influenced by a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.
 
After a strong increase of 1.7 percent against the dollar in the previous week, last week the euro exchange rate slightly weakened against the dollar, by 0.11 percent, to 1.1347 dollars.
 
The U.S. currency, after falling more than two percent against the Japanese yen in the previous week, last week recovered some of those losses, strengthening by one percent to 144.04 yen.
 
Thus, the U.S. dollar achieved its first monthly gain against the yen in May since the beginning of the year, strengthening by about 0.6 percent, while against the euro it did not record significant changes on a monthly basis.
 
Investors have priced in the likelihood that U.S. tariffs will remain in some form, even now that Trump is facing a court battle over his powers to impose tariffs on the rest of the world.
 
Specifically, the little-known Court of International Trade based in Manhattan ruled last week that Trump exceeded his powers by imposing comprehensive tariffs on imports from countries that sell more to the U.S. than they buy. The White House immediately appealed that decision, and the entire process could reach the Supreme Court if necessary, but in the meantime, that court decision has sparked hope that Trump might back down from the highest tariffs he threatened.
 
Although the exact level of tariffs that will remain on trading partners is unclear, traders expect that tariff duties will remain in some form.
 
– We will have certain tariffs. Perhaps not as ‘exciting’ as announced on April 2, but we will still get them. The only thing the court decision may have done is limit the amount of shock Trump can cause with a headline or comment at a press conference – said Steve Englander from Standard Chartered Bank NY.
 
White House trade advisor Peter Navarro announced on Thursday that the Trump administration will seek to impose tariffs in other ways if it ultimately loses court cases regarding its trade policy.
 
Investors have been concerned for some time that tariffs will slow growth and reignite inflation, although agreements to reduce high tariffs on China and the EU while negotiating trade terms have reduced pessimism regarding the U.S. economic outlook.
 
For new guidance, investors are now eagerly awaiting what the U.S. employment report for May will show, which will be released next Friday, especially in light of the unexpected jump in the number of Americans who applied for unemployment assistance in the previous week.

Wall Street’s Rise Contributed to Strong May Index Performance

In hectic trading on Wall Street last week, the main indices rose sharply, achieving significant gains in May, and investors will now turn to macroeconomic data to be released in the coming days to see what impact the chaotic tariff policy of the U.S. president has had on the world’s largest economy.

On Wall Street last week, the Dow Jones rose 1.9 percent to 42,270 points, while the S&P 500 strengthened 1.9 percent to 5,911 points, and is now just four percent below its record level reached on February 19. At the same time, the Nasdaq index rose two percent to 19,113 points.

Last week’s gains were primarily due to a surge in stock prices at the beginning of the week on the wings of increased investor risk appetite following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone the introduction of 50 percent tariffs on European exports. Trump thus backed down from his threat of 50 percent tariffs against the European Union starting June 1, postponing their implementation to July 9 to allow for negotiations between the White House and the EU bloc.

However, by Wednesday, the indices fell after it was announced that the U.S. administration ordered companies that produce software for designing chips to stop selling their services to Chinese companies, and they soared again on Thursday after a U.S. federal court blocked the implementation of Trump’s “Tariff Liberation Day,” which again spurred investment in riskier assets like stocks. On Friday, trading was cautious after Trump stated on social media that China had “violated” the trade agreement with the U.S.

Such trading in stocks last week is merely a reflection of the continued large oscillations in investor sentiment during May, which was very volatile for global stock markets due to Trump’s chaotic trade policies. Ultimately, his ‘softer’ approach to tariffs, along with better-than-expected corporate earnings and subdued inflation, helped the S&P recover after losses in April.

The S&P index indeed strengthened by 6.2 percent in May, while the Nasdaq jumped by 9.6 percent, making both indices achieve their best monthly performance since November 2023. The Dow strengthened on a monthly basis by 3.9 percent.

Trump’s trade wars have been shaking global markets for weeks due to concerns about economic consequences. For new guidance, investors will now turn to macroeconomic indicators to be released next week, primarily regarding employment in the U.S.

– Now that we have recovered and are again close to records, I think macroeconomic data must be better than expected for us to be able to advance from these levels – believes Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

The employment report for May is expected to show an increase of 130,000 jobs, according to a Reuters survey of economists, which would, however, be lower than 177,000 in the previous month.

And on European exchanges, stock prices also rose last week. The London FTSE index strengthened by 0.63 percent to 8,772 points, the Frankfurt DAX by 1.56 percent to 23,997 points, and the Paris CAC by 0.23 percent to 7,751 points.