The New German Chancellor Merz Starts with Weakened Political Power

From the new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, both Germany and Europe expected leadership in difficult times. By refusing to confirm his appointment in the Bundestag in the first round of voting, ‘his’ ruling coalition CDU/CSU – SPD has tied his hands even before the start of his term. Due to the secrecy of the voting, it remains unknown which eighteen members of the agreed ruling coalition withheld their votes from him. However, they sent a message of readiness to disobey the new government, weakening Merz’s political power from the outset. He was elected Chancellor in a repeated vote, but he will carry the humiliation of the first round with him.

The Peak of a Two-Decade Process

Instead of a new leader who planned to send a strong message of new German pro-European policy through visits to Paris, Warsaw, and Brussels, which would renew the Weimar defense-political triangle of Germany – France – Poland and introduce new dynamics into the development of the EU, a humiliated Chancellor of questionable power and duration arrived for his inaugural visits. Among his foreign policy priorities (still) is strengthening Germany’s position in Europe, enhancing European defense capabilities within NATO, unwavering commitment to transatlantic cooperation, and continued support for Ukraine.

When it comes to Germany, the focus is on strengthening the economy, abandoning radical green policies, and above all, stopping uncontrolled illegal immigration. Thus, this is a policy that, after abandoning the project of globalist liberalism, is expected to become the new German and European mainstream and enable the resetting of Germany and Europe without drastic upheavals and chaos.

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So why did those eighteen disobedient members in the first round feel the need to humiliate him and threaten Germany with a serious political crisis? Merz’s humiliation in the Bundestag is just the peak (or the last episode) of a process that has been ongoing in various forms for about twenty years: since the then new CDU leader Angela Merkel practically exiled him from politics – despite (or precisely because of) the fact that he was considered the destined successor to Helmut Kohl. However, it is not just a lasting personal intolerance; it is also about two completely different political profiles: Merz is a conservative with a pro-American orientation, while Merkel will be remembered for making Germany and Europe energy-dependent on Russia. Interrupting a successful career in finance, Merz decided to return to politics after Merkel announced her withdrawal. He returned as a sharp critic of her immigration policy, blaming her for the rise of the AfD and as a critic of radical green policies. Merkel stopped him twice in his bid for party leader by imposing her protégés and once in an attempt to run for Chancellor.

‘Obstacles’ at Every Turn

Political developments have shown that Merz was right, but Merkel left a deep legacy, including that in the German deep state. She has almost taught Germany that it can function without elections. Or at least regardless of electoral results. Merz’s project for change has become a problem for that (unelected) power structure. A problem of losing power. That is why he encounters ‘obstacles’ at every turn. Just a few of the most obvious: first, he was accused of potentially collaborating with the far-right AfD. Then he was forced to renounce that collaboration in advance.

In both cases, his pre-election ratings fell. In a forced coalition with the SPD, the big loser of the elections, he had to give up demands for financial discipline and agree to new borrowing, and due to one-time support from the Greens, he had to incorporate some of their policies. He was, in fact, caught between a rock and a hard place. The rock is the AfD, which has since become the leading party in the state, and the hard place is the old structure of Angela Merkel. As the icing on the cake, the request from the German domestic counterintelligence agency (BfV) came to declare the AfD, after it became the leading party in the state, a ‘proven extremist organization’ (!).

Without entering into the merits of the dispute, in a state with a functioning democracy, such a BfV would be dissolved – because it either failed to protect the state from a ‘proven extremist organization’ before it grew to become the leading party in the state or it is engaged in unacceptable political manipulation. However, the new Chancellor is powerless in this regard. The Trump administration does not help him with open support for the AfD, even though its diagnoses of the shortcomings of German democracy are fundamentally correct. In such circumstances, Chancellor Merz has two bad choices: to abandon his program or to reconcile himself with a short-lived mandate. Rumors that Angela Merkel might want to return as a savior may not be entirely unfounded.