Maersk Reduces Forecast for Global Container Market Due to Tariffs

The Danish container company A.P. Moller-Maersk has lowered its forecast for the global container transport market due to what they highlighted as a trade war initiated by Donald Trump with the announcement of tariffs. Maersk now predicts that this year, the volume of the global container transport market will range from a decline of one percent to a growth of four percent, citing ‘increased macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty’ as the reason. According to Bloomberg, back in February, Maersk had forecasted a growth of about four percent for this market.

– With the rise in trade tensions and uncertainty, global supply chains are back in the spotlight – commented Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk, adding that for now, the trade war mainly affects U.S.-China relations while the rest of the world continues to operate normally.

However, tariffs have already ‘bitten’ into the container transport market in April, and the volume of trade between China and the U.S. fell during the escalation of the trade war ‘by 30 to 40 percent in both directions,’ said Clerc. Nevertheless, Maersk is, as he noted, less exposed than other shipping lines because its largest trade route is between Asia and Europe.

Expected Growth in Europe

Maersk currently controls about 14 percent of the global container fleet and operates 60 ports, and the development of a terminal in the Port of Rijeka, which it will soon control, is underway. The company expects an increase in traffic in Europe, due to accelerated investments, including in defense, especially in Germany.

Additionally, due to the crisis in the Red Sea, which has lasted nearly 18 months, the profits of shipping companies have increased, as bypassing that area via the southern route around Africa reduces the excess capacity of ships in the industry. Maersk expects disruptions in the Red Sea to continue throughout the rest of the year.

In February, Maersk indicated that this could result in achieving the upper range of their profit estimate for 2025, and the company still expects EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for 2025, to be in the range of six to nine billion dollars.

Two Possible Scenarios

In the second half of the year, the global container transport market will face two scenarios: a rising risk of reduced demand or a recovery in trade if tariffs are lifted, said Maersk. Growth is expected to align with the market.

– The outlook for global demand for containers during the remainder of the year remains very uncertain, shaped by the rapidly changing landscape of trade policy and rising risks of recession in the U.S. – they added.

In the second quarter, however, growth is still expected, ‘especially if shippers take advantage of the 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs by pre-loading shipments and increasing inventories,’ concluded Maersk.