American Tariffs Cause Turbulence in Aviation and Tourism

The trade conflict with the USA leaves visible consequences on the global economy, particularly in the tourism and aviation sectors. According to the latest analysis by credit insurance company ACREDIA, in collaboration with Allianz Trade, the recently introduced American tariffs are leading to a decline in demand for air traffic, an increase in operational costs, and bottlenecks in aircraft production.

– We are witnessing a sensitive chain reaction. New tariffs significantly increase the prices of aircraft and their parts, while at the same time, political uncertainty reduces interest in travel, stated Michael Kolb, a member of the management board of Acredia.

Decline in Demand

The number of tourists from Western Europe who visited the USA in March 2025 fell by 17 percent compared to the previous year – according to data from the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), the number of German travelers decreased by as much as 28 percent, and Spanish travelers by 25 percent.

The United States has traditionally been one of the three most important destinations in international tourism, as well as in air traffic. Therefore, dependence on business with the American market is extremely high. However, weakened demand is now very evident: the average seat occupancy on transatlantic flights has dropped from 84 to 78 percent since the beginning of the year. The decline in demand for long-haul flights to the USA, which are among the most profitable for many airlines, is particularly painful.

European Airlines in a More Stable Position

– The outlook for European airlines is relatively good, despite all the challenges. Thanks to significantly lower kerosene prices and more stable margins, we expect an average revenue growth of approximately 10 percent for 2025, Kolb said.

However, airlines are facing issues related to capacity and rising aircraft prices. The demand for new aircraft globally remains high, while production continues to suffer long-term consequences from the pandemic. By the end of 2024, the global order book reached a record 17,000 aircraft, and delivery times, especially for short and long-haul routes, have significantly extended. According to industry forecasts, aircraft prices could rise by up to 20 percent by 2030.

– After the pandemic-induced slowdown, the aviation industry has recently stabilized again. However, current economic trends are sharply slowing down that recovery. A particular challenge for many airlines is the rising aircraft prices and limited production capacities, which complicate investments and strategic planning, Kolb stated.

Risk Assessment as a Strategic Tool

– In economically tense times, it is even more important to base business relationships on reliable information. Companies are advised to timely verify potential partners or clients. As a leading credit insurance provider, we support this through reliable creditworthiness assessments, market analyses, and clear evaluations of economic risks, Kolb concluded.