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Fear of Trade War Drives Oil Prices Down to $59

Oil prices plummeted on Wednesday in international markets to $59 after China retaliated against raised U.S. tariffs with the same measure, igniting fears of a trade war that could stifle the global economy and energy demand.

On the London market, a barrel of oil was traded at a price $3.63 lower than yesterday’s closing price, at $59.12. A similar decrease was observed in the U.S. market, where it traded at $55.99 per barrel.

The markets were shaken on Wednesday by the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. The U.S. raised the announced additional ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on Chinese imports from 34% to 84%, highlighting in its justification that China last week responded to the announced new U.S. tariffs with 34% tariffs on American goods. When considering additional tariffs from previous months, Chinese imports to the U.S. are now subject to tariffs of 104%. On Wednesday, Beijing responded by raising tariffs from 34% to 84%.

– “The aggressive Chinese response reduces the chances for a quick agreement between the two largest economies in the world, fueling fears of recession globally,” said Ye Lin from Rystad Energy.

– “If the trade war extends over a longer period, it could jeopardize China’s share in the growth of oil demand, which amounts to between 50,000 and 100,000 barrels per day, but the loss could be mitigated by a stronger push (from Beijing) for domestic consumption,” Ye added.

Leading producers plan to simultaneously increase market supply significantly. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman will increase supply in May by 411,000 barrels per day, which corresponds to the amount planned for the quarterly period, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced last week.

The decision is based on an assessment of a ‘continuously solid relationship between supply and demand and positive market outlooks,’ they added.

In such conditions, the price of a barrel on the Russian market fell below the $60 limit set by the Group of Seven (G7) leading developed economies for the first time on Wednesday, threatening insurers and carriers with sanctions if they transport more expensive Russian barrels.

The sharp price drop was only mitigated by hints of stronger U.S. demand.

U.S. oil inventories fell by 1.1 million barrels last week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated that API data would show an increase in inventories of 1.4 million barrels.

OPEC separately announced that on Tuesday, the price of a barrel of its members’ oil basket increased by 29 cents, to $66.54.

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