Further Decline of Crobex Expected, Global Stock Markets Under Pressure

On the Zagreb Stock Exchange, a further decline of the Crobex index is expected, as the situation on global stock markets remains unsettled due to the trade war. All analysts who participated in the Hina survey expect a further decline of Crobex today.

The Crobex index fell 4.64 percent last week, to 3,174 points, while Crobex10 dropped 4.58 percent, to 1,994 points. Both indices have erased all gains made since the beginning of the year, with Crobex now down about half a percent compared to the start of the year, and Crobex10 down about 0.4 percent.

All sector indices also sharply declined last week, with Crobexindustry falling the most, by 8.4 percent. Regular trading volume exceeded 11 million euros, which is 5.2 million more than the previous week.

Additionally, a block trade of 20.14 million euros was achieved in transactions involving three stocks – Končar at 10.8 million euros, HT at 8.64 million, and Podravka at 700 thousand euros.

– On the Zagreb Stock Exchange, indices fell significantly less than on the largest global stock exchanges last week, and the stocks of companies exposed to the U.S. market, either directly or indirectly, were under the most pressure. Trading volume was significantly higher than in previous weeks, both in regular trading and in block transactions – says Petar Mezga, financial analyst at Erste Bank.

In regular trading, the highest turnover last week was achieved by Končar shares, at 2.85 million euros, with its price dropping 8.3 percent to 433 euros.

Following with a turnover of nearly 2.5 million euros was Ing-Grada shares, which fell 5.2 percent to 45.5 euros. The HT stock was also in focus for investors, with a turnover of 970 thousand euros, and a price drop of 0.5 percent to 43.2 euros. The preferred shares of Adrisa also had significant turnover, at 611 thousand euros, with a price drop of 2.8 percent to 62.2 euros.

The largest price drops were seen in Tehnika shares, down 15 percent to 23.8 euros, Viktor Lenac shipyard shares, down 11.6 percent to 3.04 euros, and AD Plastika shares, down 11.15 percent to 9.24 euros.

The biggest winner was the preferred share of Croatia osiguranje, with a price increase of 5.9 percent to 1,800 euros.

A total of 52 stocks were traded on the ZSE last week, with prices of 42 falling, six rising, and four remaining stable.

Trade War Shakes Global Stock Markets

Last week, global stock markets recorded the largest weekly decline since the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, as Washington announced drastic import tariffs, and Beijing responded with countermeasures.

On Wall Street last week, the Dow Jones fell 7.9 percent, while the S&P 500 plummeted 9.1 percent, and the Nasdaq index dropped 10 percent.

– The sharp decline in stock prices followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of significantly higher tariffs on imports to the U.S. than expected. As a result, a higher inflation rate is now anticipated, as well as a more significant slowdown in economic growth than previously estimated. U.S. GDP will be under pressure due to Trump reducing government spending, leading to a potential weakening of both private and public demand – explains Petar Mezga.

European stock prices also sharply fell last week. The STOXX 600 index of major European stocks dropped 8.3 percent. The London FTSE index slid 7 percent, while the Frankfurt DAX fell 8 percent, and the Paris CAC dropped 8.1 percent.

– Uncertain trading is expected in the coming weeks, depending on how the situation with tariffs develops. Unlike China, which responded to Washington by increasing tariffs on U.S. goods, many countries are avoiding escalation and planning negotiations. A response from the European Union is also expected this week. Overall, tariffs will continue to be in focus for investors – concludes Petar Mezga.

This morning, stock prices on Asian markets further sharply declined, and judging by the futures indices, a further sharp drop in European and U.S. stock indices is expected.