In a strange turn of events, HDZ last week attempted in Croatia the proven ineffective tactic of accusing a political opponent of corruption. On its official Facebook pages, the ruling party attacked SDP by listing its scandals, although it is a matter of general culture in this country that voters are largely indifferent to scandals, which HDZ knows all too well. The nervous reaction is likely prompted by a recent CRO Demoskop poll indicating that SDP has overtaken HDZ and become the first choice of voters after a long and dry five years. Specifically, 26.3 percent of voters would now vote for SDP, while only slightly fewer, 26.1 percent, would trust HDZ. The difference falls within the margin of statistical error, but that is, of course, irrelevant because the mere fact that SDP has caught up with HDZ must concern the ruling party. The extent of its loss in popularity is best illustrated by the fact that in the parliamentary elections in April last year, it won over 34 percent of the votes with its partners. Adding to this is the expected, but truly difficult, defeat of HDZ’s candidate Dragan Primorac in the presidential elections, where he managed to secure only 25 percent of the votes in the second round held at the end of last year against Zoran Milanović, making it clear why concern is growing within HDZ ahead of the local elections in May.
Various interpretations of this sudden turnaround have been offered in the public space, but there is almost a consensus among analysts that SDP has not suddenly become very appealing to voters, but rather that HDZ has become extremely off-putting to them.
Indifferent to Scandals
The reasons can be debated, but it is less likely to be an ideological problem and much more likely to be about the economy. The government of Jadranka Kosor was judged in 2011 by the economic crisis and an eruption of voter dissatisfaction with the high unemployment rate, and it is becoming increasingly clear that this time, stubbornly high inflation and the introduction of property tax are cutting HDZ much deeper than regular scandals, which the public has long become indifferent to. Only in the governments of Andrej Plenković do ministers change like on a factory assembly line, at a speed that even the most dedicated followers of daily politics find hard to keep up with, but this has not prevented the party from achieving a rarely good result in the last parliamentary elections. Therefore, it is something else, and that is the economy. Macroeconomic indicators may be consistently positive, but as the unexpectedly successful boycott by traders suggested, voters do not feel that they are living well. Moreover, the revolt against the continuous increase in prices is very tangible, and the main culprit in their eyes is the government. The measures it has taken, mostly limited to regulating various prices, have not achieved the desired effect, and voters are becoming increasingly dissatisfied.
