The Level of Insolvency in 2025 Will Not Change Significantly

Leading Austrian receivables and risk management company Acredia, in its latest insolvency research conducted in collaboration with Allianz Trade, predicts a further but smaller increase in global corporate bankruptcies in 2025. Following a 10 percent increase in 2024, a 6 percent rise is expected in 2025, followed by a 3 percent increase in 2026.

– There are still no signs of improvement. We expect high levels of insolvency in 2025, similar to those in 2024. Only in 2026 could there be a slight decline – stated Michael Kolb, a member of the Acredia management board.

Forecast of Insolvency in Croatia

The number of bankruptcies over the past three years has shown fluctuations – after 5,602 bankruptcies in 2022, the number fell to 4,351 in 2023, only to rise again to 4,832 in 2024. A comparison of January data shows a slight decline in 2025, with 573 bankruptcies compared to 631 in the same month of the previous year.

Insolvency in Croatia increased by 11 percent in 2024 compared to 2023. However, it fell by 9 percent in January 2025 compared to January 2024. Tourism, which accounts for almost one-fifth of GDP in Croatia, remains sensitive to external shocks that can cause a drop in demand. Companies in retail, construction, and manufacturing are also affected by these impacts.

– The weakening economy in the Eurozone, particularly in Germany, and the decline in demand continue to exert pressure on Croatian companies this year – emphasizes Kolb.

Acredia expects the stabilization of insolvency in 2025. A GDP growth of 3.2 percent is expected for 2025, which is slightly lower than the previous year but still among the highest growth rates in the EU. Croatia’s economic growth will continue to be supported by EU-funded investments.

It is still unclear how the introduction of U.S. tariffs on products from the EU and Croatia will affect the country. Total Croatian exports to the U.S. account for just under four percent. Given that more than 60 percent of Croatian exports go to the European Union, particularly to Germany, Italy, and Slovenia, the negative impacts of tariffs will mainly be felt indirectly through European partners.

Trade Conflicts

In the event of a global trade war, the situation in Austria could worsen further.

– If customs and trade conflicts escalate, we would have to increase the insolvency forecast by one percentage point. The business environment has rarely been this complex and unstable, so companies must remain cautious to avoid the risk of non-payment – warns Kolb.

For Italy, a 17 percent increase is forecasted, followed by Germany with 10 percent, and the Czech Republic with 5 percent.

– Economic uncertainty remains high across the EU, and businesses must focus more on resilience and adaptability to cope with the rising number of bankruptcies – added Michael Kolb.

Globally, experts from Acredia and Allianz Trade predict a 6 percent increase in corporate bankruptcies for 2025 and a 3 percent increase for 2026. The most affected countries are Russia (+24 percent), Turkey (+20 percent), Brazil (+13 percent), and the U.S. (+11 percent). The number of bankruptcies has significantly decreased in Hungary (-23 percent). The effects on the labor market are also significant – around 2.3 million jobs worldwide are directly threatened, 120,000 more than the previous year, particularly in Western Europe.