Plan to Halt Imports of Russian Energy Awaits a Clearer Geopolitical Picture

Despite all the favorable changes brought about by new European energy plans such as Sporazum o čistoj industriji and Akcijski plan za pristupačnu energiju, the European Commission has postponed addressing the cessation of dependence on imports of Russian energy sources. A roadmap for breaking this dependence, which is unhealthy like any other, was supposed to be adopted this year, but it has been postponed indefinitely.

Although European Commissioner Dan Jorgensen emphasized this week before the European Parliament that efforts are being intensified to end dependence on Russian energy sources, the experts we spoke to are generally concerned about the delay in announcing the roadmap.

– The postponement of the roadmap announcement raises serious concerns about the strategic direction of the EU and long-term energy security. I hope that it is merely a necessary time to define such a complex problem, and not a change in direction, as that would mean we have learned nothing. In any case, significant progress has been made — Croatia, for example, has reduced its dependence on Russian gas from 70 percent in 2021 to about 20 percent today, thanks to LNG diversification and renewable sources. Changing suppliers must not lead to new dependencies, especially on the US for LNG supply, which now accounts for over 40 percent of European imports; only an energy-independent EU can truly be free and secure – assessed Julije Domac, adding that accelerating investments in energy storage, cross-border electricity interconnections, and strategic industrial policies that ensure the development of clean energy technologies within Europe, as well as strengthening regional cooperation with North African countries, would also help.

Similar data was presented by Jorgensen before the European Parliament, who also announced the need to completely halt the import of fossil energy sources into the European Union due to the unjustified and disproportionate influence of foreign actors on the European economy, which such business relations inevitably bring.

– It is not a sustainable situation that can be justified in the long term for our continent to depend so much on energy imports. We need a strategy to eliminate the import of all fossil fuels, regardless of their origin. This will make us safer and more resilient. Our historical dependence on Russian imports has left the EU exposed to the instrumentalization of energy as a weapon and the consequent supply risks, allowing Russia to influence prices and harm our economy. As we have seen in the past, such behavior has far-reaching consequences for Europe, causing market volatility and jeopardizing the stability of the EU energy market – said Jorgensen in a speech that can be found on his official website.

However, such encouragements cannot dissuade the staunchest skeptics, who base their views on knowledge and life experience. As he is skeptical of other European plans, energy expert Zdeslav Matić was predictably skeptical about the plans to break energy dependence. According to his assessment, dependence on Russian energy sources is not a commercial category that can be broken for dark motives.

– Dependence on anything Russian is not a commercial but exclusively a criminal category. Anyone who wanted to rid themselves of Russian raw material supplies from 2014/2022 could have done so if they wanted. Those who remain tied to the Russians are only those who wanted to for political, thus ideological and corrupt motives. The fact remains that Russian gas, oil, and mineral raw materials are an abundant and cheap source of energy and raw materials with already established very expensive infrastructure for their transmission/transport to locations. However, with the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine, the EU must decide what kind of relationship it wants to have with Russia. We cannot expect a regime change in this generation, and it is also questionable whether a new regime would be even worse. So, how high of a sanitary cordon should be established towards the Russian Federation? – Matić questioned.

He also warned that it is necessary to strategically position oneself regarding what he called ‘growing American imperialism and the explosion of the extreme right in America that is being exported to Europe’, and that these strategic changes also require strategic thinking about the EU’s relationship with China.

On the other hand, Dražen Jakšić, director of the Hrvoje Požar Energy Institute, approached the assessment of this delay more cautiously, taking into account the overall development of geopolitical events.

– The postponement of the roadmap announcement is an expected result of the current geopolitical situation, especially in the context of the change in the American administration. Work is still ongoing as the goal is to find a good alternative and break the dependence on energy imports from Russia – said Jakšić.

Thus, this delay can actually be understood as Europe taking a time-out until it becomes completely clear in which direction the US is heading regarding energy and whether trade disputes resulting in tariffs will also impact this sector.