Someone said: ‘China!’ As far as I remember, former Foreign Minister Vesna Pusić was the first to mention China as a potential European ally, including for Croatia, after the new American president Donald Trump announced a distancing from the previous American policy of being the defense-security guardian of Europe. Since then, every now and then, someone mentions that country as a possible ally against Trump’s America.
It is not easy to discern whether these ideas belong to the category of childish or teenage reactions. It is childish to seek a solution to the current conflictual relationship with a strategic partner from its greatest rival, without considering where you are going, on what foundations the lights and high-tech superiority of Shanghai rest. Ignore that they rest on a system and mentality that is completely foreign to Europe, on the suppression of every individuality and absolute subordination to a supreme authority, whether it be a former emperor or today’s Communist Party. It is a teenage reaction when you try to resolve your current dissatisfaction with the behavior of a strategic partner by fleeing to its greatest rival, secretly hoping to provoke jealousy. That Trump will beg Europe, or Croatia, with tears in his eyes to return from the embrace of China. But what if he doesn’t? And he probably won’t.
Platform for talks with Trump
Such bizarre ideas, which are not necessarily devoid of some malicious intentions, simply have no place in serious contemplation of a new European security-defense concept, which is now a European necessity. Instead, we must accept the political reality and seek rational solutions. Indeed, Europe is not a priority for Trump. He unequivocally makes it clear that the U.S. no longer wants to finance European defense, and it is not excluded that at some point he will be ready to withdraw American soldiers from Europe, thus questioning NATO’s survival.
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Many do not like Trump’s nature and actions. I would also prefer that he shows less ‘bravado’ and naked superiority. But he is the one with whom Europe now needs to find common ground and take on additional commitments – in the interest of its own future
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However, these are not new ideas and doubts. NATO’s future and the presence of American soldiers on European soil began to be questioned immediately after the end of the Cold War. Ideas about a European army and a common European defense are even older. Today’s European defense is realistically weaker than during the Cold War. It has been shown that Europe cannot politically or militarily cope with even a smaller regional crisis on its continent (the wars following the breakup of former Yugoslavia).
Currently, the only rational concept of European defense and security is to remain under the American strategic umbrella and, in the short term, strengthen its military-defense capability. The only realistic framework for this remains NATO, which already has a defense-security infrastructure, in which the U.S. has leadership and which is broader than Europe. A new EU defense with an additional, defense EU ‘Ursula’ is not realistically feasible or sustainable. On that platform, within NATO, European states should begin talks with Trump about the future model of European defense and security. Many do not like Trump’s nature and actions. I would also prefer that he shows less ‘bravado’ and naked superiority, that his associates do not always start sentences with ‘As President Trump said…’. But he is the one with whom Europe now needs to find common ground and take on additional commitments – in the interest of its own future.
Do not accept gifts from the Danai
The answer to the question of what Croatia should do these days was offered by Dr. Robin Harris, a British-Croatian citizen who was a political advisor to Margaret Thatcher during the crucial period of the end of the Cold War. ‘Stick to NATO – which means maintaining any friendship we can establish with the U.S. (…) It really is that simple,’ Harris conveyed.
To this fundamental direction, I would add some specific recommendations. When it comes to European defense and security, we should follow what NATO Secretary General, the pragmatic Dutchman Mark Rutte, is doing. Do not push into dangerous times with unnecessary statements into problems beyond Croatia’s category, where we are neither asked nor perceived – like Milanović’s advocacy for the recognition of Palestine or Plenković’s for a just peace in Ukraine based on international law and the inviolability of borders. It is also very important to maintain internal stability and avoid any attempt to perceive Croatia or Croats in BiH as crisis instigators. This also means not accepting gifts from the Danai, such as Dodik’s offer of a ‘third entity’ in BiH. Because Croats in BiH, driven to the wall of political survival, realistically cannot obtain a third entity and cannot improve their position by creating crises and problems. Thus, they can only lose the entire BiH.
