The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its regional economic forecast for 2025 downwards by 0.3 percentage points compared to its outlook from September 2024. Growth in the economies where the Bank invests is now expected to average 3.2 percent this year, before rising to 3.4 percent in 2026, according to the latest regional economic outlook report.
This downward revision primarily stems from weaker external demand in Central Europe, the Baltic states, and Southeast EU countries. It also reflects the ongoing impact of conflict and the slow pace of reforms in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region.
Ukraine has entered 2025 facing weaker economic performance and rising inflation. The Bank has revised the country’s forecast for this year downwards, as Russian attacks on energy infrastructure continue to hinder production. Ukrainian GDP growth is expected to reach 3.5 percent in 2025, before strengthening to 5.0 percent in 2026, assuming a ceasefire is in place by the end of 2025.
The new report titled ‘Weaker Momentum Amid Fragmented Trade and Investment’ highlights the subdued global growth momentum and the persistent gap between the performance of advanced European economies and the United States.
The Relationship Between U.S. Tariffs and GDP in EBRD Regions
The report notes the growing uncertainty surrounding potential tariff increases on imports from the U.S. and retaliatory measures from trading partners. The increased uncertainty alone is sufficient to deter investment, weaken production, and disrupt global supply chains, the report states. Looking beyond uncertainty, the short-term impact of tariffs and trade restrictions on individual economies will depend on whether tariffs are applied universally or only to selected trading partners.
A scenario in which the United States raises tariffs on all imports by an additional 10 percentage points could short-term reduce GDP in EBRD regions by 0.1-0.2 percent. While Jordan, Slovakia, Hungary, and Lithuania are among the EBRD economies most sensitive to such measures due to their overall trade exposure to the U.S. market, the report shows that Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Romania are most exposed to the recently announced increase in U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Economic analysis also shows that if tariffs are applied selectively, economies with preferential access to the U.S. market could benefit from trade diversion and increased foreign direct investment (FDI).
Rising geopolitical tensions have led to a sharp decline in trade and foreign direct investment between rival geopolitical blocs, concentrated around the West led by the U.S. and the East led by China/Russia. At the same time, FDI from China and the United States into ‘connecting’ economies such as Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia has increased, the report states.
The EBRD highlights that regional inflation has decreased, providing some relief. Indeed, inflation has fallen from a peak of 17.5 percent in October 2022 to 5.9 percent in December 2024. Despite this, inflation remains more than 1 percentage point above its pre-pandemic average, with price pressures increasingly driven by demand-side factors such as looser fiscal policy and rapid wage growth.
– Although inflation has significantly decreased, the sources of inflationary pressures have shifted. Fiscal policy and wage dynamics now play a much larger role, and the way forward requires careful calibration of policy to ensure a stable growth trajectory – says Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist at the EBRD.
While the moderation of inflation is largely in line with expectations, the report highlights the fact that interest rates – including rates in the United States – have been declining more slowly than previously expected.
