As a Customs War Looms, Nitrogen Fertilizers Have Increased by 35 Percent in Just Two Months

The price of nitrogen fertilizer Kan (21 percent nitrogen) has increased by 35 percent since December, which is very bad news for farmers at a time when the EU is also announcing proposals to limit the import of agricultural products from third countries. Agricultural expert Ivan Kopilović warns of the rising fertilizer prices, emphasizing that this is now much more problematic than a potential customs conflict between the EU, the USA, and China. In December, the price of this fertilizer was 310 euros per ton, and by the end of February, it reached 420 euros, which could lead to increased prices for agricultural crops this year.

– This price increase has gone ‘under the radar’ while discussions about the customs war were ongoing, and are still ongoing. This is fertilizer used for feeding agricultural crops, and I fear that grain prices will rise this year due to this increase. The alternative is not better for farmers, which is to fertilize crops less, but in that case, we can expect lower yields, which would again affect the rise in grain prices – explains Kopilović.

According to him, this is a consequence of the sanctions imposed on Russia as gas is the primary raw material for the production of nitrogen fertilizers, and he claims that the EU has achieved nothing with the sanctions imposed on Putin’s regime. Moreover, Russia has found new channels for export through which its gas continues to reach Europe, but at a higher price, so it can be concluded that the damage from the sanctions is greater for the EU than for the Russian Federation.

When it comes to the announcement of limiting the import of agricultural products from third countries into the EU, Kopilović interprets this only as preparation for securing a better future negotiating position, and it remains to be seen what any potential limitations will bring. This is likely a consequence of American customs policy, and due to the entire dust that has not yet settled, the Croatian Agricultural Chamber (HPK) is concerned about any new form of disruption in the global market. They state that they are not sure about any measures without prior analysis that would show what impact it would have on agriculture in the EU.

– We have expressed our concern about new trade agreements with South American countries, which could jeopardize domestic competitiveness. So far, no prior impact assessment has been made, and that is the most important for any decision by the European Commission. HPK has contacted Copa Cogeca regarding the impact of tariffs from the USA, as well as the introduction of tariffs on fertilizers in the EU – they say at HPK.

They emphasize that European farmers and agricultural cooperatives are deeply affected by trade tensions between the USA and the EU, noting that America and China are key markets for the export of agricultural and food products from the EU. Any disruptions – whether they are tariffs, import restrictions, or regulatory disputes – can have serious consequences.

– We have already seen how retaliatory measures can harm sectors such as dairy products, pork, and alcoholic beverages. Farmers need stable trade relations, not uncertainty. China and the USA are markets that cannot be easily replaced or separated from. All restrictions or retaliatory measures seriously affect our farmers. Ongoing trade disputes, including tariffs on European agricultural and food products, harm both producers and consumers. We call on policymakers to engage in constructive dialogue to prevent agriculture from being caught in geopolitical tensions. We encourage the European Commission to continue dialogue with China and the USA to prevent further disruptions. Agricultural trade should be a stabilizing force, not a bargaining chip in broader economic disputes – they say at HPK.