Strategic raw materials such as aluminum and steel have become the main news in recent weeks, as the debate over the introduction of tariffs on these goods intensifies. Initially, the United States announced tariffs on these goods for Mexico and Canada, only to postpone them for a month on the same day. Subsequently, it was decided that tariffs would be introduced starting March 13 for all countries, without exceptions. The impact of tariffs on steel will be noticeable, but not decisive, considering that U.S. expenditures on steel last year exceeded the value of production by only 11 percent, according to this week’s analyses from the Croatian Employers’ Association.
The introduction of tariffs is expected to most significantly affect sectors such as automotive, aerospace, and construction. However, steel production in the U.S. has not increased since 2017 in response to the tariffs that were introduced at that time, while imports have declined as consumption has also fallen. Aluminum will feel a greater impact from the tariffs, as the U.S. produced only 750 thousand tons of primary aluminum, while net imports amounted to 2.2 million tons, indicating that the U.S. is more dependent on aluminum imports than on steel. Looking ahead, the HUP anticipates further increases in aluminum prices above $2,600 per ton.
The price of wheat has risen by 1.3 percent in the past month, now standing at €236 per ton. It is highly likely what will happen to wheat prices in the future, given that tariffs are also expected to be introduced on this commodity, especially since U.S. trading partners have announced countermeasures by imposing tariffs on American agricultural products. This market situation could most benefit EU farmers, as less wheat is coming from Russia.
The Russian agricultural consulting company IKAR has reduced its wheat crop forecasts for 2025 by as much as two million tons, to 82 million tons in the baseline scenario. The Russians can only export 10.6 million tons of wheat by the end of June, which represents a 63 percent drop from last year’s levels, posing a problem for importers who preferred Russian wheat due to its dumping prices. Wheat prices are expected to exceed €240 per ton by the end of the year.
