Return to 2022: Last year ended better than expected for Croatian goods exports

The first results from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics regarding the trade exchange with foreign countries indicate that Croatian exports last year amounted to 23.94 billion euros, representing a growth of 4.6 percent compared to 2023. The final result will be published at the end of May, so there is a possibility that the updated data will be very close to the amount of 24.11 billion euros, which was the value of exports in the record year of 2022. The difference between the initial results and the record achieved during the energy price surge is only 114 million euros. However, it can be confidently stated that last year ended better than expected for Croatian exports, considering that economic analysts at the beginning of last year forecasted export growth of two to three percent for 2024.

The modest forecasts from the beginning of last year primarily stemmed from fears of a dramatic decline in orders from the German market and, consequently, a chain reaction in other key markets of the European Union for Croatian exports. That these fears were not entirely unfounded is evident from the fact that last year Croatian exports to EU markets increased by barely 0.4 percent, while exports to third markets rose by an unexpectedly high 13.4 percent. The largest export growth was achieved in the USA (up 39.5 percent in the first eleven months, or 210 million euros) and in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the export value in the first eleven months reached nearly 2.5 billion euros, representing a growth of 17 percent.

Although some exporters saw a decline in orders from the German market last year, exports to Germany still slightly increased (1.3 percent) in the first eleven months, reaching 2.65 billion euros, keeping that country in first place among Croatia’s largest export markets. The largest contribution to this was made by Končar, which generates more than 70 percent of its total revenue in the EU markets, especially in Germany.

Imports increased by 5.4 percent last year, with a value of 41.76 billion euros. As with export values, it is possible that revised data in May will show that imports will also reach the record amount achieved in 2022. Here too, the difference between the preliminary data for 2024 and the record from 2022 is only one hundred million euros. Finally, to complete the foreign trade return to the levels of 2022, it should also be noted that the trade deficit in those two years was approximately at the same level: last year it was 17.82 billion euros, and two years prior it was 17.76 billion euros.