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Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates to Highest Level in 17 Years, Yen Immediately Rises

The Bank of Japan (Bank of Japan) raised interest rates on Friday from 0.25% to 0.5% – the highest level since the global financial crisis of 2008. This is the first increase in interest rates since July of last year, and there have been many indications over the past two weeks that tightening Japan’s monetary policy is inevitable, Bloomberg reveals, as the decision came just a few days after the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

In a statement explaining their decision, the Bank of Japan indicated that core inflation is moving towards the targeted 2%. However, if these forecasts do not materialize, especially since many Japanese companies have announced that they will continue to raise wages this year, the BoJ is expected to continue raising interest rates this year. The Bank of Japan is determined to raise interest rates to around 1%, Reuters reports, as this is a level that analysts do not see as either ‘cooling’ or ‘overheating’ the Japanese economy.

It is worth noting that in March 2024, the Bank of Japan ended its era of negative interest rates and raised borrowing costs for the first time since 2007, thus leaving behind decades of deflation. When the current governor Kazuo Ueda took over the leadership of the Bank two years ago, he immediately made it clear that his goal was to end the ‘easy’ monetary policy that characterized the entire previous decade, but without major restrictions.

Currency Markets React Immediately

Immediately after this news, the value of the dollar against the yen fell by 0.35% to 155.51, while the yield on two-year Japanese government bonds rose to 0.705%, the highest since October 2008. Currently, the BoJ Governor Ueda is expected to explain the pace and timing of further interest rate increases, given that Japan’s borrowing costs remain the lowest among developed countries.

Core inflation in Japan accelerated in December to the highest annual level in the last 16 months at 3%, and excluding food and fuel, it was 2.4%.

The Board of the Bank of Japan predicts that core inflation will reach 2.4% in 2025, and a slowdown to the targeted 2% is expected only in 2026. In the previous forecast in October of last year, inflation was expected to reach 1.9% in 2025 and 2026. The Board has raised its inflation forecasts due to the announced wage increases, and thus an increase in consumer spending.

However, forecasts for Japan’s economy to grow by 1.1% in 2025 and 1% in 2026 remain unchanged.