Friedrich Merz is the Only Candidate Who Could Potentially Become the New Leader of Europe

The electoral victory of Donald Trump has highlighted, among other things, how leaderless the European Union has become: without a leader, without a vision, without a strategy, mired in Brussels bureaucracy, with politicians engaged in day-to-day management.

Germany, which today can be the only real leader of the EU, has been caught in a political limbo by the American elections, with Chancellor Scholz’s red-green-yellow government, the weakest in recent history, and an equally weak economy. France, which remains Germany’s most convincing partner in this leadership, finds itself in a similar state, with a weakened President Macron, governments that easily fall, and an even worse economic picture than Germany’s. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is compatible with the future American administration, but Italy is too weak to lead the EU. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is not worth mentioning in this context. The key question for positioning the European Union in the coming year is whether it will produce a state leader who can strengthen its position in the changes that will surely be initiated by Trump’s administration.

A Persistent Political Fighter

Therefore, all eyes are currently on the only candidate who could potentially become the new leader of Europe in turbulent times. This is Friedrich Merz, the chancellor candidate of the Christian Democratic coalition CDU/CSU in the early German parliamentary elections at the end of February. The media already refer to him as the ‘German Trump’. However, the path from media title to convincing German, and then, with a big ‘maybe’, to European leader is long and uncertain.

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Friedrich Merz possesses all the qualities needed for a future German and European leader in the years to come. He is a social conservative, an economic liberal, firmly transatlantic in orientation, advocates for the preventive strengthening of the defense sector, and has rich experience in corporate business. As the destined successor to Chancellor Kohl, Angela Merkel politically eliminated him about twenty years ago. However, Merz has proven to be a persistent political fighter and after an extremely successful career in investment business, he returned to politics, taking over the CDU in his third attempt, which Merkel had meanwhile turned into a club of her obedient followers. Today, it is evident how justified his persistent criticisms of the former chancellor’s policies were: from the party’s leftward shift, the economic shift to green, geopolitical reliance on Russia and economic reliance on China to the open-door migration policy.

Merz warned before the American elections, and especially after them, that an agreement with Trump is possible and necessary for Germany to regain its economic strength and political influence. He was very critical of Scholz’s government and the accompanying media that portrayed Trump’s victory as the greatest disaster for Germany and the European Union. He demonstrated a sense of political timing in the last month when Lindner’s liberals, traditional coalition partners of CDU/CSU, brought down the naturally dying Scholz (and their own) government, ending the agony and triggering early elections. This is an obvious attempt to rapidly restructure Germany and adapt to new international political circumstances. During this period, Merz rhetorically began to assume the role of German chancellor, which he is likely to become. However, this is currently the least challenging and easiest task for him.

An Impossible Mission

The question is with whom he will be able to form a government after the elections. It is likely that there will not be enough votes to restore the old partnership between CDU/CSU and the liberals. In a grand coalition with the SPD, he cannot implement a program of change and returns to Angela Merkel’s model. The winning option would be to win back voters that Merkel pushed towards the far-right AfD, which is almost an impossible mission in the short term. Therefore, the next two months are crucial. Only if he succeeds in forming a functional German government ready for a political and economic turnaround, could he step forward as a European leader capable of uniting both Macron and Meloni and Tusk, and restoring a pro-Western orientation to Central European countries that are increasingly turning towards Russia. But never again with the same leadership influence that Merkel had in the EU.

For any potential realization, the next two years are key. In short, the EU is entering a year of changing trends in international relations without true political leadership. With many ambitious soloists of minor influence. And with Ursula von der Leyen, whose influence on geopolitical processes is minor. But at least she has a refined sense of aligning with the winners.