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Is a Santa Claus Rally for Bitcoin Coming This December?

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Is this December a good time to buy Bitcoin? Some in the crypto community say there is no gift like a price increase, especially during the holiday season at the end of the year. Historically, stocks and cryptocurrencies deliver most of their positive annual returns during this time.

– The Santa Claus rally is a continuous increase in the stock market that occurs around the Christmas holidays on December 25. Most estimate that these jumps happen in the week leading up to the Christmas holidays, while others see trends starting from Christmas to January 2 – it says on Investopedia.

But it is not just a seasonal jump in the cryptocurrency market this month. There are also broad macro trends in favor of the ‘orange coin’. Meanwhile, there are fundamentals in the supply of Bitcoin on crypto exchanges.

Moreover, the Trump effect for most stocks and cryptocurrencies after his historic electoral victory is very real. Given his agenda for the growth of the crypto industry, markets expect this to heavily favor Bitcoin as his administration progresses.

Here are five reasons why Bitcoin bulls expect further price increases for Bitcoin by December and New Year.

1. The Fed is expected to lower rates again in December

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin typically rise long-term during the Federal Reserve’s low-interest rate regime. With interest rates having been nearly 0 percent for years after the 2008 financial crisis, Bitcoin surged from zero to $20,000 by December 25, 2017. Then, when the Fed raised rates in 2018, Bitcoin’s price crashed into what the market called ‘crypto winter’.

After that, the Fed lowered rates back to zero in response to the global coronavirus pandemic in 2020. This led to new records for Bitcoin and many altcoins. Then the central bank returned to raising rates in early 2022.

Now that the Fed has returned to lowering rates, Bitcoin is in an upward trend. The price is rising above new highs in December and shows no signs of slowing down.

The Fed’s top official stated in early December that the Fed is ready to lower rates again at the meeting in December 17 and 18.

– I am currently inclined to support a reduction in the benchmark rate at our December meeting – said Christopher Waller, a key Fed official.

2. The Bitcoin supply cycle

The accommodating Fed’s interest rate regime is favorable for Bitcoin, but the supply cycle is also greatly in favor of the bulls. The Bitcoin white paper includes a 50 percent reduction in the issuance of new Bitcoins in circulation every four years, known as halving.

This is similar to the Fed raising its rates every four years, which would make every dollar stronger in purchasing power over time. Instead, the Fed lowers its rates to make every dollar weaker so that consumers and businesses spend faster and make up the difference with economic growth.

However, Bitcoin is designed to increase the purchasing power of its long-term holders. Instead of increasing its quantity and reducing its purchasing power, Bitcoin reduces the new supply rate to strengthen and consolidate its purchasing power.

3. Outflow of Bitcoin from crypto exchanges in December

While daily newly produced Bitcoins have halved earlier this year, the availability of Bitcoin for trading on crypto exchanges has also drastically decreased. This liquidity drop is a long-term strong price support for Bitcoin.

30-day outflows from crypto exchanges exceeded 58,440 Bitcoins (worth $5.58 billion at the time) on Tuesday, December 3, according to CoinGlass data. By December 7, just four days later, that trailing 30-day figure had risen dramatically to 116,259 Bitcoins.

This represents a conviction among long-term holders and an intention to hold their Bitcoins rather than cash them out.

4. Year-end results

Most companies reach their annual revenue quotas only in the last part of the calendar between November 1 and New Year’s Eve. The New York Stock Exchange is no different, nor is Bitcoin.

– Historically, the fourth quarter is the strongest quarter for Bitcoin, and November has often been a standout month. December, which has also been good in past bull cycles, represents promising prospects – according to an article on Nasdaq, a popular website for stock traders.

In terms of total dollar increases, the price of Bitcoin rose more in one month in November than in any month in its history. This heralds a strong Santa Claus rally if market sentiment remains unchanged into the New Year.

5. Pro-Bitcoin Republicans Hold Washington

Donald Trump tolerated Bitcoin during his first term. In his second term, he advocates for government understanding and laws for growth that leave room for more innovation in blockchain.

A segment from December 6 on CNBC highlighted a large number of pro-crypto nominations for Trump’s second administration. As the future president made his selections, the price of Bitcoin on crypto exchanges hovered near its historical maximum of around $100,000.

As Trump said in a speech at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July, during the campaign for the presidential election in November, those who say Bitcoin is a threat to the dollar misinterpret reality.