The results of the HLIPO index (Hendal-Leader Index of Optimism) survey from the third quarter of this year continued the trend of good business optimism results, although optimism has somewhat waned compared to the first two quarters of 2024. However, HLIPO shows that the business cycle is still in a boom phase, or prosperity, in which it has continuously been for three full years.
Just like in comparable periods last year, after a high jump in business optimism compared to the end of the previous year in the first quarter, this year the peak of optimism was also reached in the second quarter, just before summer. Of the seven key sectors of the economy from which respondents were included in the HLIPO survey, summer directly represents the peak season for four sectors (tourism, food part of the processing industry, trade, transportation, and storage), so it is clear that business rush before summer brings high expectations for results.
After summer, and the latest survey conducted in September, the situation changes, and the assessment of the current business situation has a greater impact on business sentiment than expectations for the next six months.
Thus, at the end of the third quarter, overall, only the transportation sector showed more optimism than three months earlier. Respondents in the manufacturing sector expressed less satisfaction with the current business situation than in June and only slightly more optimistic expectations for the next six months; in construction, satisfaction with the current situation slightly declined, and expectations were significantly reduced; respondents from the trade sector at the end of September were noticeably more satisfied with the current business situation than at the end of June, but they reduced expectations for the upcoming period; on the contrary, the tourism sector showed a significant drop in satisfaction with the current situation, along with an increase in expectations; in energy, both the assessment of the current state and the estimate for the next six months fell sharply, and the same is true for the IT sector.
