Home / Business and Politics / LNG production only modestly increased in 2024

LNG production only modestly increased in 2024

Global demand for gas has recovered this year, but supply remains limited, with relatively modest growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), highlighting that buyers are seeking to secure long-term contracts.

Gas demand is expected to increase by more than 2.5 percent this year, reaching 4,200 billion cubic meters, with a similar growth rate expected in 2025, the IEA estimated in its annual supply analysis.

Asian countries are the main source of demand, but industrial demand in Europe is also recovering, although it remains significantly below pre-crisis levels, they note.

New capacities, however, are still limited due to weak growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, estimated at only two percent this year.

The growth rate is the lowest since 2020, the IEA emphasizes.

LNG has played a more significant role since the onset of the global energy crisis two years ago and is likely to be crucial in maintaining the balance between supply and demand globally, the agency speculates.

In 2025, LNG supply could accelerate significantly, with an estimated growth rate of just under six percent, thanks to the expected activation of several large projects, mainly in the second half of the year.

North America will account for approximately 85 percent of new capacities, while suppliers from Africa and Asia will account for the remainder.

Uncertainty due to questionable transit

A significant source of uncertainty ahead of this winter in the northern hemisphere will be the agency’s assessment of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, given the expiration of existing contracts at the end of the year.

This could mean a complete halt to Russian gas deliveries to Europe via pipelines through Ukraine.

The suspension of transit does not pose a risk to the supply of Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia in the immediate future, the agency estimates, pointing to their full storage, gas infrastructure connectivity, and “indirect” access to the global LNG market.

Moldova, on the other hand, is significantly “more vulnerable” and must cooperate with regional and international partners to secure gas during the winter, they add.

If Russian gas no longer arrives via pipelines through Ukraine, Russian deliveries through this transport channel are expected to decrease by 15 billion cubic meters in 2025, according to agency calculations.

Since the beginning of last year, buyers have increasingly been purchasing liquefied gas through long-term contracts, the IEA notes, adding that contracts for periods of 10 years or more accounted for 85 percent of procurement volume since the beginning of last year.

Contracts with fixed destinations accounted for more than 70 percent, and those ordered for more than four billion cubic meters accounted for just over half of the ordered quantities last year, they note.

Tagged: